GeoEye Q3/2008 Earnings: The Hard Part Is Over, Now The Fun Begins
Things were as expected today, which is to say rather lackluster, as GeoEye, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEOY), a provider of space-based and aerial imagery and geospatial information, reported its fiscal 3rd quarter 2008 earnings on Tuesday, and updated the status of GeoEye-1.
While I wrote previously that I did not expect the Q3 earnings to be anything special (they weren’t), GeoEye did update the status of GeoEye-1 on the call, and why it has taken longer than expected for the full checkout and imagery certification so that GeoEye can begin selling imagery to its customers.
What follows is a summary of GeoEye’s earnings announcement and conference call, and what you need to know if you own, or are thinking of owning the stock.
New to the GeoEye story?
GeoEye provides space-based, and aerial imagery and geospatial information through high-resolution and low-resolution imagery, imagery-derived products, and image processing services to customers worldwide.
This capability benefits a broad array of industries including national defense and intelligence, online mapping, state and local governments, environmental monitoring and land use management, oil and gas, utilities, disaster management, insurance and others.
Want more?
- Read my initial buy recommendation here.
- or listen to my EXCLUSIVE interview with GeoEye’s management team here.
I’ll break down this report into 4 parts:
- Hit Me With The Numbers: Sales, Earnings: All Down, I’ll Explain
- Other Business Highlights: Solid cash reserves, honing in on Service Level Agreement (SLA) with NGA
- Conference Call Highlights: GeoEye-1 close to being fully certified and operational
- Bottom Line: GeoEye is Still a Go
Hit Me With Some Numbers
Sales, Profit Down as Expected
Here are some of GeoEye’s earnings highlights (growth from previous year’s Q3/analyst’s estimates where applicable):
- Quarterly sales of $35.9 million (down 33%, from $53.8 million in the prior year/vs. $34.87 million projected by analysts)
- Quarterly operating income of $8.3 million (down 65%, from $23.8 million in the prior year)
- Quarterly net income of $6.0 million, or $0.27 per diluted share (down 79.3%, from $22.0 million, or $1.21 per diluted share in prior year/vs. $.12 per share projected by analysts)
- Gross margin of 49.9% (down from 64.4% from prior year, but up from 43.5% in Q2/2008)
- Operating margin of 23.1% (down from 47.9% from prior year, but up from 15.4% in Q2/2008)
- Net margin of 16.8% (down from 40.9% from prior year, but up from 7.0% in Q2/2008)
My Take: GeoEye’s quarterly sales actually weren’t that bad, especially when put into context and losing orders from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) that were given to GeoEye’s only competitor, DigitalGlobe (NYSE: DGI), as a result of the delayed launch and checkout of GeoEye-1.
At any rate, GeoEye’s margins were higher as a result of a better mix of products, namely selling more imagery as opposed to their “Production and Other” segment which manipulates the imagery and has higher expenses associated with it.
Like I said before, I don’t really care about what GeoEye has done in the past, and in about 1 more month, we can look solidly to the future and into 2009, as GeoEye begins selling imagery from GeoEye-1, which I’ll have more details on below.
Other Business Highlights
Solid Cash Reserves for Construction of GeoEye-2
- GeoEye is currently finishing the calibration and checkout phase of GeoEye-1 and expects to start commercial operations with GeoEye-1 next month. (More below.)
- GeoEye is currently in negotiations with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) regarding the establishment of a Service Level Agreement (SLA) that the they believe will streamline the order flow from NGA. The Company expects to sign this agreement shortly.
- GeoEye’s cash and short term investments balance was $149.9 million at Sept. 30, 2008, as compared to $234.3 million at Dec. 31, 2007.
- This balance, coupled with the remaining milestone payments from NGA of $11.6 million, provides more than sufficient cash to fund the amounts due to complete the GeoEye-1 program.
- As of September 30, 2008, GeoEye has expended approximately $471 million of the $502 million for the launch, build-out and insurance on GeoEye-1.
- The remaining $31 million represents final amounts to contractors not yet incurred, interest to be capitalized during the commissioning phase and contingencies.
- GeoEye does not provide forward guidance, which I like.
My Take: There was nothing shocking or untoward in GeoEye’s earnings release other than the fact that they again had to delay their 10-Q filing as a result of some accounting errors, which would not materially affect their revenue or profits.
They assured investors that they have taken steps to correct this problem (more below), and from now on, all accounting should be streamlined and free from further restatements and adjustments.
I’ll talk more about it in a minute, but GeoEye ended the quarter with a nice cash hoard, which they will be using to start the construction and build out of their NEXT satellite, GeoEye-2.
Yep, you always have to be looking ahead since it takes 3-4 years to build out and launch one of these birds.
Finally, as I’ll also discuss below, GeoEye will be entering into a Service Level Agreement (SLA) with the NGA which will vastly improve their order flow and streamline their revenues and profits from quarter to quarter.
Now let’s take a look at some conference call highlights…
Pages: « previous page 1 2 3next page »
(6) comments to “GeoEye Q3/2008 Earnings: The Hard Part Is Over, Now The Fun Begins”
Leave a Reply
PeakStocks.com welcomes and encourages reader comments. Add your voice to the discussion whether you agree with me or not.



Don't show again


December 19th, 2008 at 11:26 am
geoy - great technology. decent business model. how you arrive at valuation / purchase price is a question to me. Looks like they’ll earn 4 million a quarter (apples/apples) going forward? sustained growth rate unclear? what multiple do you put on this as a forward growth rate? 16x times 90cents earnings puts you at the market (15 or so) right now. single digits - i buy this all day. comments?
December 20th, 2008 at 1:14 am
Ed,
Thanks for the comments.
What I have posted before and didn’t in this update, is that GeoEye’s valuation is not dependent on it’s earnings per share because of the cost of write-downs for the amortization expenses of the GeoEye-1 satellite.
So, when you look at the value of GeoEye, you must look at the EV/EBITDA because that ads back those expenses which also get added back on the cash flow statements.
Looking at these values, you can see that GeoEye is grossly undervalued, especially when GeoEye-1 comes online from this perspective related to its peers and overall market.
Also, if we did want to take into consideration the EPS value, that is expected to be about $1.00 next year, so even on that level, with the stock trading at around $15 as of this writing, that’s a P/E of 15, with a long term growth rate of about 20%, still undervalued even using a metric that is entirely not applicable because of GeoEye’s business model.
Chris
December 28th, 2008 at 5:16 pm
Chris,
I like this stock and own it. Can you explain why risk for GEOY is 8? by what criteria the risk is rated?
joe
December 28th, 2008 at 6:03 pm
Joe,
Good question, I just addressed this in my last post here:
http://peakstocks.com/buy-alert-its-time-to-lock-up-shares-of-geoeye-immediately
Thanks for reading!
Chris
January 15th, 2009 at 6:06 am
Any new word about the ongoing “checking and calibration” we keep hearing about? Getting concerned about the ongoing delays. Your thoughts? Insider buying is definitely a good sign- can’t wait for this thing to go into production. When it does, I’m doubling down!
January 15th, 2009 at 3:49 pm
Aaron,
Nope, nothing yet. I’m sure that management isn’t going to say much either because even if things are going well, they are certainly not going to jeopardize the possible acceptance of that imagery.
Putting in a call to management isn’t going to yield anything because they can’t divulge any information that isn’t already public knowledge.
Chris