By Guest Columnist: Ankit Gupta http://www.selectedfinancials.com

Authentidate (Nasdaq: ADAT): Significant Opportunities for Revenue Growth

Every now and then I like to give guest authors a chance to share their views either on the stocks that I already cover, or names that I don’t, but that I feel would benefit my readers. Some of these author’s viewpoints agree with mine, and some don’t.

I feel that the more information you have about a particular company, stock or the market in general, the better decisions you can make regarding your investments and what actions you should take in regards to those investments.

Today’s guest author is Ankit Gupta who runs his own blog: http://www.selectedfinancials.com

Ankit is also a student at Purdue University that has a passion for creating businesses and helping them overcome their largest hurdles. He is currently involved with a startup out of Indianapolis and also on the board of Purdue’s Publishing Foundation. His other hobbies include reading, exercising, and finding companies to invest in that have a great story to help take them forward.

Please note that this is not a formal recommendation, just an information piece designed to allow you access to companies that I might never cover, but that are worth a look for your portfolio.

Authentidate: Ripe for the Taking

By Guest Columnist: Ankit Gupta http://www.selectedfinancials.com

Authentidate: Significant Opportunities for Revenue Growth

10/21/2009 - Authentidate (NASD: ADAT) - $1.56

Business Overview: Authentidate provides software solutions for electronic medical records. They service this through 3 methods: Software solutions for care providers, home telehealth devices, and patient discharge solutions.

Business Background: Authentidate has been public since 1992, originally traded as Bitwise Designs. Since then, the business has undergone many changes, and is now primarily in the healthcare arena.

Market Opportunity: $1.2B is flowing into electronic medical records (VP Biden announced this in August). Authentidate’s entire business is based on electronic medical records and the numerous ways in which businesses are going to be needed to process them. In addition, telehealth monitoring is by many studies, expected to grow into a $12B industry by 2012. Their third solution, patient discharge, is the solution to a problem that has been experienced by many people in the industry, for quite a long time, however requires the electronic medical records to make it feasible, which we are now seeing.

Authentidate’s Business Offerings:

1. Inscrybe – All forms, processes, and workflow with paper, are made electronic. Healthcare offices can be more efficient, increasing full time employee throughput by 50%. Document cycle times reduce from 22 days to 7 days. Approval/billing cycle times reduced by 2 weeks. Any regulatory changes are easier to comply to as well, because everything is electronic.
2. ExpressMD – A joint venture between EncounterCare Solutions, who developed the hardware, and Authentidate, who developed the software, for a home telehealth device. It will take your vitals and relay the information to your healthcare provider. For patients with chronic conditions, this is a very important aspect. As we see more government programs push for increased healthcare coverage, doctors will see that they have to care for 3-4 times the number of patients in certain areas, and a device like this is the only way to really meet the needs of all the patients. This is a 50/50 joint venture. Cyntrist is the current distributor/reseller signed up.
   

   There are currently telehealth devices out in use in Florida as per a recent press release. Studies are showing that there is about a 48% savings when using telehealth at the care provider level – consumer benefit is even more because it increases quality of care, eliminates the need to visit a hospital very often, etc.

3. Patient Discharge – Over 20% of discharged patients are readmitted for complications. The solution proposed by Authentidate, distributed by Nortel right now (division acquired by Avaya), automatically provides referrals, increases the audit trail, notifies healthcare providers immediately when a patient can be discharged, provides follow-up services, and eliminates paper/fax communication by making it all electronic.

Product Overview: Authentidate provides electronic medical record services. In all three cases, the basic offering relies on the software portion, which is what Authentidate handles.

Stock Overview:

The stock price has made significant moves from hovering in the 30-40 cent range for a while, and is now approaching the $2 territory. Significant announcements driving the stock price include FDA approval for the telehealth device, Nortel contract for discharge solution distribution, and a recent number of contracts for Inscrybe.

Earlier this year, 2 board members and 2 executives purchased 990,000 shares. In addition, 547,000 shares were repurchased by the company itself. With ~35M shares outstanding, this represented a significant portion. Based on SEC filings and the dates on which these occurred, this was probably a transaction with Coghill Capital Management, possibly in light of the recent financial crisis requiring Coghill to liquidate shares.

Financial Overview: Authentidate burns about 600k/month, has about 6.5M of NCAV (June 30th), and just under 7M/year in revenue for last year. They have $2M in property, $3M in emergency funding from a board member’s brother, and a German division of the business that provides secure transaction solutions. All three are current sources of possible funding. This means that should they decide to avoid dilution, the company has many avenues of raising funds. There have been SEC filings for another round of funding lately, underwritten by Rodman and Renshaw. While they are not currently profitable, US breakeven is in the $9M/year territory.

Funding: June 30th, they reported 6.5M NCAV. Assuming that burn rate hasn’t changed, Authentidate will have somewhere around 4.5M NCAV for the period ended September 30th. $3M beyond that has already been secured. With an estimated 7.5M on September 30th, and 2M/quarter of burn, we’re left with 3-4 quarters of cash at the current burn rate. There is property on the books worth $2M, that could probably fetch $1.25-$1.5M in a quick sale, giving them 2 more months. In a worst case scenario, they have a German division of the business that doesn’t fit well with Authentidate’s main focus, that could be sold for another $4-5M. In addition, they are obviously looking for more funding as per the SEC filings.

Last quarter’s revenue: As you look over their income statements, you’ll notice revenue was down significantly, below $1.6M for the quarter. This is due to the ended of their Liberty contract, which was generating about $100k/month.

revenues were down at Liberty but then still in the fold our revenues would have been up about 39%. - Bill Marshall

The fact is that revenue was down significantly, that can’t be argued. The thing to note though is that there is significantly increased demand for their service.

Hockey stick curve approaching in next few years? Here are the major points to consider:

1. Telehealth – ExpressMD’s telehealth device is one of only a few that has FDA approval. This is a market that does not have an established leader, is expected to grow a lot ($12B in 2012), and enables Authentidate to spread its software solution into the homes of people and more doctor’s offices.
2. Inscrybe - $1.2B is flowing into these services, which is the incentive that was needed to get care providers over the hump of making everything electronic.
3. Insider buying – 1.5M shares being bought is a significant statement on its own, and even though the company has not issued any guidance, I believe this is a bigger statement than anything else.
4. Recent moves in stock price – Interest in this stock, despite low volume days, is increasing, and the stock price has continued to move up.
5. Funding from board member’s brother - $3M has been put up as emergency funding.  This is a big sign because this board member bought 250,000 shares in March, and now family money is on the line.

Disproportionate income from hockey stick curve revenue?

1. Authentidate is a software services company. Their COGS is very low, it will consist largely of expenses that are fixed. Each time a transaction occurs, like a patient’s records are pulled up, their only additional cost is a little bit of processing power and bandwidth.
2. Research/Development is largely fixed as well, the service has to be made once, and can be used millions of times. They’ve been working on this for numerous years now. With the recent push from Washington, they have a matured solution at the perfect time.
3. They have $100M+ in tax writeoffs.
4. Overview: Let’s say that in 5-7 years, Authentidate is doing 90M/year in revenue. The $1.2B into electronic medical records has made it’s way into the market, telehealth has taken off and we’ve established a #2-3 position, and patient discharge is doing great, with 5-6 major distributors.It’s possible that because expenses are largely fixed, we could see 70M in profit. Net Income could potentially be 40-50M.

Great business opportunity, is this an investment opportunity?

There are currently ~35M shares outstanding, with a market cap around 55-60M. As Authentidate ramps up revenue, we’ll see significant increase in net income and cash flow as well.

Each of their offerings is addressing a major issue in the market, and there is a very strong push coming from the US Government for more and more efficiency.

As the governmental push increases, certain niche healthcare providers will have to care for a multiple of their current customer base, which will no doubt require technological efficiencies, such as telehealth devices, electronic medical records, and increased patient discharge solutions. There are plenty of whitepapers talking about the efficiency of each one, and customers who have seen the benefits, along with recent customers signing on for these benefits attest to this.

As a whole, Authentidate has a significant, and undervalued, potential for very large upside. The downside, in my opinion, is limited, because Inscrybe alone has been showing significant quarterly revenue growth, which will bring them to profitability.

Risk/Reward Analysis

Anyone who has studied Authentidate’s filings can tell you that through a few sources (sale of business/property assets), Authentidate has the ability to have a year of cash available to them without outside funding. Even with that, the question is if revenue really will ramp up to where it needs to be for profitability (US is in the $9M/year range). In the end, this stock will either go to 0 or become profitable and see its market share multiply.

One way to think about this is that the upside is much greater than the downside. In a worst case scenario, Authentidate should be able to ramp up Inscrybe revenues with additional contracts, that they have been getting (see their news releases), and can sell off other divisions of the business that are not related to electronic medical records. For those investing, be clear with yourself, there is a degree of speculation here.

What to look for in their future? Major announcements include a few things:

1. Additional Funding
2. ExpressMD (telehealth) sales
3. More Inscrybe clients & Patient Discharge progress

Announcements around additional funding or telehealth device sales will probably be the biggest catalyst in moving the market’s valuation on this company. Management does have an additional $3M available to them, but they probably won’t want to have a quarterly conference call with only 1-2 quarters worth of cash on their books. You can keep an eye on their SEC filings by clicking here.

Still interested? Spend time on Authentidate’s website, their investor information postings, listen to their conference calls, dig through all of their SEC filings, and do your own due diligence. Introduce yourself to me as well - send me an email, tell me who you are, and what interests you the most about Authentidate.

Disclosure: Long ADAT

Note: Post was revised on October 26th, 2009.

Today’s guest author is Ankit Gupta who runs his own blog: http://www.selectedfinancials.com and is also a student at Purdue University that has a passion for creating businesses and helping them overcome their largest hurdles. He is currently involved with a startup out of Indianapolis and also on the board of Purdue’s Publishing Foundation.

There’s good news and bad news as far as that goes…

First the bad, at least as far as you are concerned as a reader of PeakStocks.com:

I won’t be posting anything for the foreseeable future.

Now for the good:

The reason that I won’t be posting anything for the foreseeable future is because I am working on my life’s work and one of my biggest passions in life (other than stocks of course!), and it has taken all my energy, focus and dedication to make that business work.

I Want to Say Thanks!

I really enjoyed writing for all of you out there, it was a freaking blast, and I still am keeping track of a few holdings (you can follow me on Twitter, where I’ll occasionally blast out some info), but I am no longer doing what is necessary to make this site an ongoing concern, at least as far as taking actionable advice on my recommendations.

I still love stocks, research and investing, but the time commitment that I put into running this site and making it explode and generate the type of traffic that grew to over 10,000 unique visitors per month (thanks!), was too much to bear, especially in light of the fact that it was a labor of love and was not making me a dime.

But Wait…You Can Contribute and Make Some Money

But, because I am still so extremely passionate about stocks, and know that I will crush the market over the long term investing in small and micro-cap stocks, I wanted to turn the site over to YOU.

Here’s 2 things that I am proposing:

1) Many of you out there that read this blog are extremely good investors with a wealth of knowledge and expertise.

I know that you know just as much as I do and more (at least when it pertains to certain companies that you know inside and out like nobody’s business).

So, what I would like to do is post any articles and well-thought-out research that anyone wants to contribute.

You’ll get some free pub (PeakStocks.com is syndicated ALL over the Internet!), free traffic to your own website, or just speak your mind if you don’t care about that.

Now I will warn you, I won’t post garbage.

You must be insightful, have a good point to make backed up with real research (whether I agree with you or not), and be passionate about what you are saying and the company or investment strategy you are touting.

2) The second thing that I am looking for is a deeper relationship.

I am looking for any individual, of any background (you do not have to have a college degree, etc.), that is as passionate about stocks, specifically small and micro cap stocks, as I am, and would be willing to run PeakStocks.com and help me transition the site into a new PAID (yep, you heard that right…) business model.

I have big plans for PeakStocks.com, and while I intend to come back to the site and implement the new business model, when I do that is still up for debate.

A partner helps me do that RIGHT NOW, while not taking me away from my current business endeavors.

We would of course split the profits, and all that I would want from you is your passion, honesty, integrity, and willingness to put in a few good hours a day, maybe 10-20 per week, for the chance to make some good recurring revenue.

This of course is a vetting process, so expect me to be VERY picky, since I am essentially giving you half of my kingdom.

Simply write to me via the “contact” link at the bottom of any page on the site.

So Long For Now…

Just in case you don’t hear from me for awhile, I wanted to say thank you!

It has been my sincere pleasure to serve you, write for you, and yea, even fight back some of the haters out there that never agreed with my stock picks…

I loved every second of it, and intend to return someday, but when that is, I cannot say.

For now, it’s so long, but I hope to hear from some of you to continue what I started and create an even BETTER website than I could ever have done on my own!

Thanks so much, and take care!

Chris

I know it’s a little early for Thanksgiving, but I’m talking about being thankful to Uncle Sam and the U.S. government for the bountiful opportunity they have given us to make huge loads of money in a relatively short amount of time.

I’m talking about shorting U.S. debt via 2 specific, but very risky vehicles:

• Ultrashort Lehman 20+Year Treasury Proshares (NYSE: TBT)
• Direxion Daily 30 Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: TMV)

–> Get updates and real-time stock trades you WON’T find on PeakStocks.com by following me on Twitter.

Thank You Mr. President

Since the collapse of the yield curve late last year when people were panicked in the market such that they were willing to take NEGATIVE returns on their money via U.S. Treasuries to ensure some type of safety, things are starting to normalize now, and in fact swing the other way.

This has given us one of the biggest opportunities in the last 50 years to take advantage of a punch drunk bumbling and stumbling government spending itself into possible oblivion.

A little harsh you say?

Perhaps, and I’m not one to judge, but I am certain of one thing: As Warren Buffett recently stated, the bubble in U.S. Treasuries is one of the largest of all time, even bigger than the housing bubble that we just witnessed collapse.

In fact, Buffett highlighted the sale in late 2008 by Berkshire Hathaway of a Treasury bill for a negative yield.

Buffett wrote in Berkshire’s annual letter in February that when “the financial history of this decade is written…the Treasury-bond bubble of late 2008″ may rank up there with the housing bubble of the early to middle part of the decade.

What The Heck Are You Talking About?

For those that are uninitiated, I’ll break it down in simple terms:

The U.S. government is printing money.

They are doing this to help stave off an apparent collapse in the banking sector, add liquidity to the market, AND prop up the U.S. economy with various stimulus packages.

How do you come up with money that you don’t have?

You borrow.

So how does the U.S. government borrow?

They issue Treasuries dated in different maturities ranging from 1-30 years.

Who buys this debt?

All sorts of folks from around the world, but mostly our neighbors to the East, China, Japan, and other countries.

What terms does the government have to offer them to take on ever increasing amounts of our debt?

Well, not too long ago, those terms were rather modest, and were akin to basically borrowing money for free, with yields going down below 3% for the 30 year notes in late 2008, and far lower yields for shorter maturities, it was a no brainer to take on more debt when being able to pay it back at such favorable terms.

That however, is now changing with Treasuries declining about 20% from those highs, and the yield now over 4% and climbing fast.

What happens when lenders, or buyers, don’t want any more debt?

We have to increase the payout they get for taking on more debt, thus lowering Treasury prices, and increasing the yield, since they work inverse of each other.

OK, I Get It, So What’s The Big Deal?

There are several reasons why it’s time to buy either of the 2 ETF’s that I am recommending now: the Ultrashort Lehman 20+Year Treasury Proshares (NYSE: TBT), or the Direxion Daily 30 Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: TMV).

Here’s some of those reasons in no particular order:

• Yields are still low by historical measures, meaning we have a long way to go before we are “tapped out”. With room to run, the government isn’t nearly finished yet applying for and getting more money from outside sources or printing their own.
• The threat of DEFLATION has lessened or disappeared entirely, and now folks are concerned with INFLATION again with rising prices for energy, commodities, and other items, despite the global recession.

This is bad news for our money, as it becomes less valuable, and you guessed it, in order to garner more buyers for our debt, we have to increase the yield being paid out, lowering Treasury prices further.

While holders of Treasuries ultimately will get their money back, prices could fall sharply in the interim, and repayment could be in greatly depreciated dollars.

• The massive federal stimulus program ultimately may lead to much higher inflation. Again, higher prices because we are artificially increasing the money supply, and making our currency worth less.
• The government’s efforts to prop up the yield are proving unsuccessful. The U.S. government has been trying its hardest to prop up Treasury prices and the yield by buying them up, but it is no longer working, as prices continue to fall, and yields continue to increase despite their best efforts.

Look for this to not only continue but worsen as the slippery slope of higher yields leads debt buyers to demand even higher rates of return for taking on higher amounts of risk

• There is some scuttlebutt out there that the U.S.’s credit rating is under review and might be downgraded from its sterling AAA rating. If this happened, it would send imminent shockwaves through the Treasury market, as U.S. debt would all of a sudden become riskier, and yep, cause investors buying our debt to demand even higher yields, pushing down Treasury prices further.
• Recent offerings showing weakened demand. The U.S. has had a busy week of auctioning Treasuries this week and demand has not been that great, with a huge decline in Treasury prices today, and I expect much more tomorrow and in the coming weeks and months as the government floods the market with Treasuries that borrowers simply cannot absorb, don’t want, or will demand significantly higher terms to take on.
• The U.S. dollar is losing value quickly. In order to prop up our currency, the U.S. government will have to raise interest rates inevitably because it will make our currency stronger, so yep, it means that Treasury prices will decline and yields spike.

On the flip side, if the U.S. dollar declines in value further, and the government doesn’t raise interest rates, well guess what? Treasuries STILL fall in value along with the declining dollar.

It’s almost a no lose situation for an investment SHORTING Treasuries, and thus my recommendation for buying one of the two vehicles mentioned: the Ultrashort Lehman 20+Year Treasury Proshares (NYSE: TBT), or the Direxion Daily 30 Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: TMV).

So now what do we do?

]]> http://peakstocks.com/its-time-to-short-tresuries-with-inverse-etfs/feed http://peakstocks.com/sell-alert-geoeye-nasdaq-geoy-sell-full-position-2100 http://peakstocks.com/sell-alert-geoeye-nasdaq-geoy-sell-full-position-2100#comments Fri, 22 May 2009 03:21:36 +0000 Chris Fernandez http://peakstocks.com/sell-alert-geoeye-nasdaq-geoy-sell-full-position-2100 What:

Today I sold my full position in GeoEye, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEOY), a provider of space-based and aerial imagery and geospatial information, at $20.75 per share.

The total amount in my portfolio was was for a 3/4 position out of a full position, accounting for about 25% of my portfolio.

Those that follow me on Twitter received this update today as I made the transaction.

By the time some of you read this post, I will have already exited the position because my price target that I outlined was breached, so I advise you to subscribe to my Twitter feed that can be sent to your phone via text message or email for any actionable alerts that I will first post there before writing about in these pages.

Why:

As I recently wrote, GeoEye threw investors a bombshell on their latest quarterly earnings and conference call when management acknowledged that their latest satellite, and the main basis for my investment thesis in GeoEye, GeoEye-1, was experiencing some mechanical/technical difficulties in one of its modes, and it was very possible that while that mode didn’t account for a large portion of revenue for the company, that the satellite might never be able to recover.

This sent the stock down 15% that day, and it has yet to recover.

In my earnings post, I reiterated how this changed things for GeoEye and our investment in the company, and how I was placing GeoEye on a cautious outlook and “Hold” stance.

Since that time, as I’ve relayed to those that follow me on Twitter, the stock has continued to crater, and today sold off again on heavy volume, and broke through key support and technical levels that I found too risky to ignore any longer.

Those that have been reading my blog and following me for quite some time know that GeoEye has been a stock that I have recommended for over a year now, and while I sold today at $20.75, I still eked out a small profit on the company despite its recent turmoil.

I am loathe to turn a small gain into a big loss, and am going to take my medicine like a man and measure GeoEye’s risk/reward more objectively from afar now.

What Will Change My Mind?

It’s quite possible that I will revisit my position and advocate buying shares of GeoEye again in the near future, but it all depends now on the company’s outlook for GeoEye-1, current market conditions, the stock’s relative strength and patterns which look very bearish now, and other factors.

Bottom Line:

I advocate you sell your entire GeoEye position right now and wait until further notice from the company as to whether or not GeoEye-1 is reparable, whether or not GeoEye can sustain their high level of revenue if in fact they cannot fix GeoEye-1, and the company’s stock price movement relative to the market and its trends that show institutional money quickly vacating the stock.

Accordingly, if you choose to remain invested in GeoEye, note that I am raising my risk rating to my highest level possible, a 10 because of all the risk factors now involved.

Finally, if you are interested in following my real time trade advice on this or any other stock, please be sure and subscribe to my Twitter feed.

New to the GeoEye story?

• Read: my breakdown of GeoEye’s last quarterly conference call and earnings update.
• OR: read my latest buy recommendation for GeoEye.
• OR: listen to my EXCLUSIVE interview with GeoEye’s management team here.

–> Get updates and real-time stock trades you WON’T find on PeakStocks.com by following me on Twitter.

*Variables You Should Know About GeoEye, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEOY)
Current Recommendation:	SELL
The Company:	GeoEye, Inc. provides space-based, and aerial imagery and geospatial information through high-resolution and low-resolution imagery, imagery-derived products, and image processing services to customers worldwide. Its imagery information products enable customers to map, measure, and monitor the earth for intelligence gathering, precision mapping, construction planning, and environmental monitoring applications, among others.
Why Sell Now:	GeoEye-1 Malfunction Creates Unknown Risk Stock Has Fallen Precipitously on Heavy Volume Stock Has Fallen Through Key Support Levels and Technical Zones Selling Now Ensures Profitable Trade From Past Recommendations Protect Gains, Look to Enter Stock Again When Outlook Is More Certain/Stock Chart Looks More Attractive
Market Cap:	$395.08
Revenue (TTM):	$146.6
Cash/Debt:	$93/ $247
Current Price:	$24.00
Risk Rating (?):	10 (Highest Possible Risk)
Position Size (?):	1/2 (5-5-08), 1/4 (6-12-08)
Buy Around Price (?):	$22.00 (5-5-08), $16.50 (6-12-08)

*As of 5-21-09. Except share price, all values in millions.

]]> http://peakstocks.com/sell-alert-geoeye-nasdaq-geoy-sell-full-position-2100/feed http://peakstocks.com/cover-alert-netflix-nasdaq-nflx-cover-full-position-4000 http://peakstocks.com/cover-alert-netflix-nasdaq-nflx-cover-full-position-4000#comments Wed, 20 May 2009 02:36:34 +0000 Chris Fernandez http://peakstocks.com/cover-alert-netflix-nasdaq-nflx-cover-full-position-4000 What:

Today I covered my short position in Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) at $39.90 per share.

The total amount shorted was for a 1/2 position out of a full position, accounting for about 15% of my portfolio.

Those that follow me on Twitter received this update today as I made the transaction.

By the time some of you read this post, I will have already exited the position because my stop limit order was triggered, so I advise you to subscribe to my Twitter feed that can be sent to your phone via text message or email for any actionable alerts that I will first post there before writing about in these pages.

Why:

As I recently wrote, I think that the stock has gotten way ahead of itself, and has now shown extreme weakness, good fundamentals or no fundamentals.

This was always meant to be a short term trade, but with the bull market that we are in, whether or not you think that it is a long sustainable bull market or a bear market rally, it’s here now, and fighting that is a hard thing to do.

I will point out that Netflix has thus far shown extreme weakness even in the face of this tremendous rally in the market, and has thus underperformed the market since its March lows by about 15% usually on higher volume to the downside, and rising only on lighter than normal volume.

Even last week when arch-rival Blockbuster (NYSE: BBI) reported horrible earnings and a revenue shortfall, NFLX rose modestly on light volume.

Today was the same story.

This doesn’t even include my macro and micro reasoning for shorting NFLX.

Reasons that include:

• increased competition by rival kiosks by Coinstar’s (NASDAQ: CSTR) Redbox machines and Blockbuster
• rising postal rates (which will continue to rise as the post office is losing gobs of money, even thinking about scaling back to 5 days a week delivery vs. 6)
• increasing costs for their streaming service
• the eventual burnout of the DVD
• testy upcoming negotiations with movie studios for streaming content
• an improving economy with consumers looking to “trade up” to actual movies, dinners out, etc., and dropping their NFLX accounts, and many, many more.

In addition, if you look at the volume/price action, as well as noticing that Netflix has breached some major support levels (10 day, 25 day, and 50 day SMA) on HEAVY volume, I still think we are in a favorable position longer term for shares to trade lower, and at the very least to underperform the market, but because shorting stocks can be dangerous, I wanted to ensure no worse than breakeven.

click to enlarge

There’s a cardinal sin in stock trading that separates that truly great from everyone else: never turn a winning position into a losing one.

I’ll look to re-enter the short if conditions warrant.

Right now, I’m going to hang back a bit, and see how it plays out.

Finally, if you are interested in following my real time trade advice on this or any other stock, please be sure and subscribe to my Twitter feed.

Warning: If you are unfamiliar with shorting and how it works, please read my explanation and disclaimer about shorting before taking any action. Shorting stocks can be very dangerous if you don’t know what you are doing, and goes against the usual long-only bias of my website, but I will not hesitate to short stocks when the risk/reward favors us greatly.

]]> http://peakstocks.com/cover-alert-netflix-nasdaq-nflx-cover-full-position-4000/feed http://peakstocks.com/authentec-ripe-for-an-acquisition http://peakstocks.com/authentec-ripe-for-an-acquisition#comments Mon, 18 May 2009 01:00:29 +0000 Chris Fernandez http://peakstocks.com/authentec-ripe-for-an-acquisition

AuthenTec (NASDAQ: AUTH), the world’s leading provider of fingerprint sensors and solutions to the PC, Wireless and Access Control markets, released their Q1/09 earnings and held their analyst conference call May 12th after the market closed.

As I wrote on my Twitter feed, 3 of the companies in the portfolio reported last week, and all things considered, AuthenTec was not the highest on my priority list by any means.

Sure, I guess that speaks to the status of the company, and I’m seriously considering shuttering the entire position as I’ll discuss below, but for now, it looks like with AuthenTec’s huge cash position (the stock currently trades at less than the $2.31 per share in cash on hand), as well as their intellectual property (IP) and client roster, a larger company can swoop in and buy AuthenTec for pennies on the dollar, and we would get an easy double from here with no sweat.

Results this time around came in ahead of expectations and it appears that things are bottoming out, and that AuthenTec’s cost cutting measures are paying off.

The questions is, will this be enough to see the company through to the other side, or will it at least be enough for them to take advantage of their upcoming products or be acquired by another semiconductor company?

What follows is a summary of AuthenTec’s earnings announcement, conference call highlights, and my take on the company’s latest quarter and results, and what you should do if you own the stock.

New to the AuthenTec story? 

AuthenTec, Inc. is a fabless mixed-signal semiconductor company that provides fingerprint authentication sensors and solutions to the high-volume personal computer (PC), wireless device, and access control markets.

AuthenTec offers a range of fingerprint sensors that enable users to access and control multiple functions on an electronic device by touching or sliding their finger across the sensor.

The company’s fingerprint sensors utilize unique information in fingerprints to verify the identity of the individual, as well as the unique, individual fingers on the same person.

With more than 40 million sensors sold worldwide, AuthenTec’s award-winning sensors take full advantage of The Power of Touch® by utilizing the company’s patented TruePrint® technology to deliver the most convenient, reliable and cost-effective means available for enabling touch-powered features that extend beyond user authentication.

These sensors are used in various applications related to security, password replacement, financial transaction authentication, and personalization applications.

The company’s products are used in a range of PC products and related peripherals, including laptops, desktops, memory keys, hard drives, keyboards, mice, and other devices.

In addition, AuthenTec’s products also integrate into various wireless devices, such as mobile phones, and personal digital assistants and personal navigation device, as well as access control devices comprising door locks, time and attendance devices, and remote wireless entry keys.

AuthenTec primarily offers its products to original equipment manufacturers, original design manufacturers, and contract manufacturers and sells its products through a direct sales force, a network of independent sales representatives, and distributors.

Want More?

• Read: my earnings preview where I talk about AuthenTec’s cheap net-net valuation

–> Get updates and real-time stock trades you WON’T find on PeakStocks.com by following me on Twitter.

I’ll break down this report into 4 parts:

• Hit Me With The Numbers: Beats expectations, slightly higher margins
• Other Business Highlights: Higher Q2 guidance, reduction in workforce, cost cutting
• Conference Call Highlights: Management discusses market, new chips
• Bottom Line: AuthenTec remains a hold

Hit Me With Some Numbers

AuthenTec Beats Lowered Estimates, Margins Slightly Higher

Here are some of AuthenTec’s earnings highlights (growth from previous year’s Q1/analyst’s estimates where applicable):

• Q1/09 sales of $7.03 million (down 54.6% from prior year/vs. $6.54 million projected by analysts)
• Non-GAAP Q1/09 net loss of (-$3.6 million), or (-$.12) per share (down from $587,000 million profit, or $.02 per share in the prior year,  and a net loss of $493,000, or (-$0.02) per diluted share, in Q4/08 / vs. (-$.14) per share projected by analysts)
• GAAP Q1/09 net loss of $4.5 million, or (-$0.16) per share (down from a net income of $188,000, or $0.01 per diluted share in the prior year, and a net loss of $1.3 million, or (-$0.05) per share in Q4/08)
• Gross margin of 48.8% (down from 49.6% from prior year, but up from 45.8% in Q4/08, 47.4% in Q3/2008, and down from 48.5% in Q2/2008)

My Take: AuthenTec had stronger order flow towards the end of Q1/09, which allowed them to come in above their expected guidance.

In addition, margins ticked up a bit as product mix was more favorable for the company.

The takeaway from these results, as well as the conference call which I’ll go over in more detail below, was that conditions seemed to point towards a steadying of order flow and demand.

That does not mean however, that things are picking up in any meaningful way, and management was still very cautious, but at the very least, it appears that things have stabilized and that order flow and inventory are getting pushed through the system.

In other words, it appears that we are in the early stages of a bottoming process at the very least.

Other Business Highlights

Raised Guidance, More Cost Cutting in the Works

• Q2/09 revenue expected to range from $7.8 million to $8.3 million ($8.05 million midpoint) vs. analyst’s estimates of $7.62 million.
• Q2/09 non-GAAP loss per share to range between (-$0.8) and (-$0.10) ((-$.09) midpoint) vs. analyst’s estimates of (-$.09) per share loss.
• Ended Q1/09 with approximately $66.1 million in cash and investments, compared to $68.7 million in cash and investments at the end of 2008.
• Operating expenses, excluding stock-based compensation charges and costs related to a reduction in workforce, were $7.2 million, compared to $7.9 million in the first quarter of 2008 and $6.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2008.
• Margins mid-40% range in Q2/09, $6.4-$6.6 million in operating expenses, about 10% less from Q1/09, plus lower interest on their cash.
• $2.5 million expected cash burn in Q2. $13 million revenue run rate keeping margins the same gets them to cash flow break-even.
• Inventory: $4.6 million, 114 days on hand, decline of $1.2 million, compared to $5.8 million or 83 days in Q4/08, expect levels to decline further.
• Days Sales Outstanding (DSO): 40 days, up from 31 days in Q4/08 due to timing of shipments in Q1, weighted towards the end compared to Q4/08.
• Sales breakdown per segment was as follows: PC segment about 69% of total sales, Wireless segment about 23% of total sales, and Access Control was about 8% of total sales.
• Focused on reducing discretionary expenses such as travel, consultants, etc. Is reducing headcount by 20%, cash bonuses are being eliminated, and they are canceling raises.
• $5 million in savings in 2009, offset by legal expenses and other costs, which will rise to about $2.9 million in 2009.
• Litigation costs, $700,00 so far in ‘09, but expect about $500,000 for the rest of the year.

My Take: You will note that the days of inventory on hand went up, even though the actual inventory went down.

This is simply a function of slower sales and lengthening of the sales cycle, which means that the inventory that they do have on hand takes longer to sell.

The good news is that they have lowered the overall inventory levels, thus increasing cash flow, and becoming more lean.

At the same time, the savings that the company was to realize from cutting costs through attrition, layoffs, and freezing bonuses, is going to be offset by their ongoing litigation with Atrua as well as new product introductions which will siphon off some of that extra cash.

What is most pressing now, is that AuthenTec ate into their cash hoard in Q1 for the first time as a public company, and are expected to do so again in Q2.

Their run rate in revenue has to be at least $13 million to break even on a cash flow basis, and they are far from that at the moment.

If sales don’t start to ramp up now, the investment thesis for holding shares on a pure value basis as a result of cash and assets vs. liabilities, starts to diminish.

We knew that this day would come, and AuthenTec has done a nice enough job shaving costs, and coming in a little bit ahead in margins and burn rate, but now we have to see where the supply/demand side of things kicks into gear, and when the PC market turns around.

The introduction of AuthenTec’s 2 new chips (Rogers and Marcy, more below), won’t be revenue generators for the company for at least another 10-12 months, so AuthenTec has to fly with the birds that got them here for now.

Now let’s take a look at the analyst conference all highlights and management’s discussion of the business.

]]> http://peakstocks.com/authentec-ripe-for-an-acquisition/feed http://peakstocks.com/things-turning-around-at-ricks-cabaret-its-time-to-buy http://peakstocks.com/things-turning-around-at-ricks-cabaret-its-time-to-buy#comments Thu, 14 May 2009 08:45:49 +0000 Chris Fernandez http://peakstocks.com/things-turning-around-at-ricks-cabaret-its-time-to-buy Our favorite purveyor of adult fantasy, Rick’s Cabaret International (NASDAQ: RICK) reported results May 12th, and there appears to be good news on the horizon.

I am recommending immediate purchase of shares in Rick’s stock at or around $6-7 per share, and in fact I added to my position at $6.90 on May 13th.

Readers of my Twitter feed were able to take advantage of my real-time buy alert as well as a weak stock market to grab shares of Rick’s at a fantastic price, as the company’s results while not stellar, show marked improvement and portend greater things ahead.

As I wrote in my recent buy recommendation for Rick’s shares, I feel that the company has reached an inflection point

While the economy still shows signs of weakness, it appears that as a result of Rick’s best-in-breed status, rebranding efforts at underperforming clubs, as well as several marketing campaigns, the company is expanding market share and wisely spending now to reap the benefits later.

In this post I’ll be breaking down Rick’s full earnings release, as well as their analyst conference call, and round out my post with what you should do with Rick’s stock whether you do or don’t own it yet.

New to the Rick’s story?

Rick’s Cabaret International, Inc., owns and operates upscale adult nightclubs serving primarily businessmen and professionals.

Rick’s differentiates themselves by providing an atmosphere where they can offer a unique quality entertainment environment that includes highly experienced and well screened entertainers, high quality managers hired from within the adult entertainment industry, and finally, providing an atmosphere and ambiance, including exclusive VIP rooms, that appeal to upscale clientele.

Rick’s also owns and operates several online and offline media properties that produce adult websites as well as cater to owners and operators of intimate apparel and adult retail stores.

Rick’s nightclubs offer live adult entertainment, restaurant, and bar operations in Houston, Austin, San Antonio, Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas; Charlotte, North Carolina; Minneapolis, Minnesota; New York, New York; Miami Gardens, Florida; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania and Las Vegas, Nevada.

As of March 31st 2009, Rick’s operated 18 adult nightclubs.

Want more?

• Read: my update on Rick’s last earnings release and conference call
• OR: read my recent buy recommendation

–> Get updates and real-time stock trades you WON’T find on PeakStocks.com by following me on Twitter.

I’ll break down this report into 4 parts:

• Hit Me With The Numbers: Sales Increase, Beat Estimates
• Other Business Highlights: Cash Flow Back, Company Sells 2 Underperforming Clubs, Renegotiates All Debt
• Conference Call Highlights: CEO Discusses Turnaround in Vegas, Other Clubs
• Bottom Line: Bought More Rick’s, You Should Too

Hit Me With Some Numbers

Sales higher, same-club sales decline

(Growth from previous year’s Q2/analyst’s estimates where applicable [only 2 analysts cover Rick’s]):

• Q2/09 sales of $18.4 million (up 21.6% from $15.09 million prior year/vs. $17.46 million projected by analysts)
• Q2/09 operating income of $3.24 million (down 31.4% from $4.73 million prior year)
• Q2/09 net income of $.84 million (includes discontinued operations) (down 67.8% from $2.6 million prior year)
• Q2/09 earnings per share of $0.09 (includes discontinued operations (down 73.5% from $.34 per share prior year/vs. $.11 per share projected by analysts)
• Q2/09 operating margin of 17.7% (down from 31.3% in the prior year)
• Q2/09 net income margin of 4.57% (down from 17.3% in the prior year, flat from 4.56% in Q1/09, and down from 8.4% in Q4/08)
• Same-club sales: down 6.9%

My Take: Rick’s preannounced their earnings on April 7th, and said that their top line would be $18.07 million, so it looks like after tallying the numbers, they actually came in quite a bit higher, topping analyst’s estimates.

In addition, it looks like Rick’s was quick with the trigger as well when calculating their same-club sales which were initially reported in that same release as having declined 7.6% to $14.05 million in the quarter, while actual results came in a little better at a decline of 6.9% to $13.9 million.

I believe the discrepancy has to do with the 2 clubs that Rick’s closed and excluding the discontinued operations of those clubs, so we’ll call that a wash in actuality.

Rick’s recently preannounced April sales and same-club sales, and while sales were up 44.6% over April of last year, same-club sales declined by 4.8% showing a slowdown in the rate of decline for same-club sales.

In addition, you’ll notice that the results are inclusive of results from discontinued operations.

In the quarter, Rick’s sold or was in the process of selling, 2 clubs, and had to write down the value of those clubs as a result of selling them for a loss. That is reflected in the totals for operating income and net income.

Excluding these one-time charges, Rick’s would have come in ahead of estimates for EPS to the tune of $.16 per share.

My only real problem with the overall results would be that Rick’s ramped up advertising expenses from about $600,000 last year in this same period to over $1.5 million this time around, with the bulk of that going towards their lagging Las Vegas location.

Other Business Highlights

Cash flow back in a big way, renegotiated debt, bailing on 2 clubs

• Cash flow from operations for Q2/09: $3.612 up from -$.57 million in Q1/09.
• Free cash flow for Q2/09: $3.35 million up from -$1.19 million in Q1/09
• Cash flow from operations 6 months ended Q2/09: $3.04 million
• Free cash flow 6 months ended Q2/09: $2.16 million
• Stock repurchase program update: Rick’s bought back 162,041 shares of stock so far in the last six months at an average price buyback of about $3.615 a share, and have thus lowered their overall share count.
• Forward guidance: None given, but Q3 results are are already on track to exceed Q2 based on turnaround efforts at current clubs
• Forward operating cash flow projections: $1 million cash flow per month run rate as of now projection
• Cash/Debt on hand: $5.33 million/$29.7 million vs. ($2.98 million/$32.48 million in Q1/09) vs. ($5.6 million/$33.6 million in Q4/08): due over the next 5+ years, with $1.3 million due in 2009.
• Sold 2 underperforming clubs in the quarter
• Renegotiated all debt to later maturity
  

My Take: Rick’s really too care of their cash this quarter, and became cash flow and free cash flow positive for the 6 months ended in Q2/09 in a big way.

This money was well spent in a combination of stock buybacks at a low price in the stock near its all time lows, and paying off debt to the tune of about $4 million since the end of 2008.

Rick’s is on the hook for about $1.3 million more this year, which they will be able to handle easily out of their existing cash, as well as the free cash flow that they will be generating to the tune of about $1 million per month from here on out.

I’ll discuss below in the conference call section in more detail about Rick’s put option obligations and debt for this year, as they pushed back all of their current debt into later this year, and into future years, saving them valuable liquidity for possible acquisitions.

Finally, for my tastes, the best news was that Rick’s dumped a couple of their underperforming clubs.

The company sold one of its nightclubs, Encounters in San Antonio, on March 1, 2009 for $40,000, including $5,000 in cash and a $35,000 note payable monthly for one year.  Rick’s recognized an impairment of $221,563 for this club during the quarter ended December 31, 2008 and the actual loss at date of sale was $226,175.

The company also has put its Rick’s Cabaret nightclub in Austin, Texas up for sale and currently has a contract for sale of the club for $2,000,000, including $700,000 in cash and a ten-year $1.3 million note.  The sale has not closed as of the filing of Rick’s 10-Q.   The company recognized an impairment of the net assets of the club of $823,090 as of March 31, 2009, recognized in the consolidated statement of income as loss from sale of discontinued operations, which affected operating income, as well as net income.

Add it all up, and it was a good quarter all things considered.

Now let’s take a look at the conference call highlights…

]]> http://peakstocks.com/things-turning-around-at-ricks-cabaret-its-time-to-buy/feed http://peakstocks.com/digitalglobe-ipo-shines-spotlight-on-geoeye-while-co-warns-about-satellite-problems http://peakstocks.com/digitalglobe-ipo-shines-spotlight-on-geoeye-while-co-warns-about-satellite-problems#comments Wed, 13 May 2009 02:45:21 +0000 Chris Fernandez http://peakstocks.com/digitalglobe-ipo-shines-spotlight-on-geoeye-while-co-warns-about-satellite-problems GeoEye, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEOY), a provider of space-based and aerial imagery and geospatial information, hit us with some good news, and a whole host of bad news today.

With GeoEye’s only U.S. competitor DigitalGlobe (NYSE: DGI) going public later this week, lots of attention is being bestowed upon both companies as a true apples-to-apples comparison can now be made as it relates to their satellite fleets, valuations and prospects going forward.

The problem?

As those that follow me on Twitter know, today GeoEye hosted its fiscal 1st quarter earnings conference call, and there was a little nugget of information about halfway into the call that caught Wall Street and me by unexpected surprise: The company’s newest satellite, GeoEye-1 is experiencing some technical problems that GeoEye is currently evaluating and determining how it will affect the company’s prospects going forward.

As you can see by the stock price, investors sure didn’t wait around for a nice and tidy explanation, and now with more focus on this sector as a result of Jim Cramer highlighting DigitalGlobe on Mad Money, as well as increased attention by various news outlets, now is certainly not the time for GeoEye to be experiencing some technical difficulties.

What follows is a summary of GeoEye’s earnings announcement and conference call, and what you need to know if you own, or are thinking of owning the stock.

New to the GeoEye story?

GeoEye provides space-based, and aerial imagery and geospatial information through high-resolution and low-resolution imagery, imagery-derived products, and image processing services to customers worldwide.

This capability benefits a broad array of industries including national defense and intelligence, online mapping, state and local governments, environmental monitoring and land use management, oil and gas, utilities, disaster management, insurance and others.

GeoEye operates in what in essence is a duopoly with only one other U.S. competitor, DigitalGlobe (NYSE: DGI), and just recently launched and certified their latest satellite, GeoEye-1, which is the most accurate and detailed commercial imagery satellite available today.

Want more?

• Read: my breakdown of GeoEye’s last quarterly conference call and earnings update.
• OR: read my latest buy recommendation for GeoEye.
• OR: listen to my EXCLUSIVE interview with GeoEye’s management team here.

–> Get updates and real-time stock trades you WON’T find on PeakStocks.com by following me on Twitter.

I’ll break down this report into 4 parts:

• Hit Me With The Numbers: Sales, Earnings Beat Expectations
• Other Business Highlights: GeoEye-1 Satellite Experiencing Problems
• Conference Call Highlights: Management Discusses GeoEye-1 Issues
• Bottom Line: GeoEye Presents Much More Risk Now

Hit Me With Some Numbers

Sales up nicely, even without full benefit of NGA contract

Here are some of GeoEye’s earnings highlights (growth from previous year’s Q1/analyst’s estimates where applicable):

• Q1/2009 sales of $45.2 million (up 25.9%, from $35.9 million in the prior year/vs. $41.9 million projected by analysts)
• Q1/2009 operating income of $1.7 million (down 69.8%, from $5.6 million in the prior year)
• Q1/2009 net loss of (-$1.7) million, or (-$0.09) per diluted share (down from (-$.82) million, or (-$.05) per diluted share in prior year/vs. (-$.25) per share projected by analysts)
• Q1/2009 Gross margin of 45.1% (down from 47.9% from prior year, but up from 43.5% in Q2/2008, down from 49.9% in Q3/2008, and down from 46.7% in Q4/08)
• Q1/2009 Operating margin of 3.8% (down from 15.7% from prior year, 15.4% in Q2/2008,  23.1% in Q3/2008, and 9.0% from Q4/09)
• Q1/2009 Net margin of -3.8% (down from -2.3% from prior year, 7.0% in Q2/2008, and 16.8% in Q3/2008, up from -8.9% in Q4/09)

My Take: The numbers came in much higher than expected and should continue this trajectory well into the future, provided there are no major problems with GeoEye-1 (see more below).

The increase in revenue was primarily attributed to the GeoEye-1 satellite beginning commercial operations in February 2009 resulting in increased imagery orders from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) for their Service Level Agreement (SLA) that they have in place with GeoEye.

The reduction in the operating and net margins is mostly as a result of increased depreciation and amortization expenses associated with the costs of GeoEye-1 that are now being deferred and expensed over the life of the satellite, which will be for about 9 years.

What is important about these figures, and more so with the bottom line net profit and EPS numbers, is that as a result of these deferred expenses and amortization costs, GeoEye’s earnings will look artificially low in the next few years and over the life of the satellite so anyone valuing the company based purely on just EPS valuation has to be careful.

For a proper valuation of GeoEye, you need to use the EV/EBITDA figure instead as it excludes these values, which are added back on the cash flow line for operating and free cash flow measurements.

In the end, those are the only metrics that matter, and although GeoEye has a history of high capital expenditures, and will most likely continue to have them for the foreseeable future, especially as GeoEye looks to build GeoEye-2 for launch in 2012, the cash flow figures should show a marked improvement and ramp up quickly as revenue starts dropping directly to the bottom line, and cash flow margins should be higher than net margins going forward.

]]> http://peakstocks.com/digitalglobe-ipo-shines-spotlight-on-geoeye-while-co-warns-about-satellite-problems/feed http://peakstocks.com/short-alert-netflix-nasdaq-nflx-short-12-position-3960 http://peakstocks.com/short-alert-netflix-nasdaq-nflx-short-12-position-3960#comments Tue, 12 May 2009 03:31:09 +0000 Chris Fernandez http://peakstocks.com/short-alert-netflix-nasdaq-nflx-short-12-position-3960 What:

Today I initiated a short position on Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) at $39.60 per share.

The total amount shorted was for a 1/2 position out of a full position, accounting for about 15% of my portfolio.

Those that follow me on Twitter received this update today as I made the transaction.

By the time some of you read this post, I may have already exited the position if my stop limit order was triggered, so I advise you to subscribe to my Twitter feed that can be sent to your phone via text message or email for any actionable alerts that I will first post there before writing about in these pages.

I am instituting a stop limit order to curtail losses if I am wrong, at about a 7-10% loss, or around $42.50 - $43.50 and I advise you do the same.

If I am wrong and the stock pokes through its 50 day moving average on the upside (which will present resistance on the way up) then you need to take your losses and get out.

If however the stock nudges through that level on weak volume on an up day in the market, you might want to look at keeping or adding to your short position, with an even tighter stop.

There may very well be a slight bounce in the stock, but what we don’t want to see is a huge move to the upside breaking through resistance on high volume, which would render our short term trade null, at least temporarily, regardless of the longer term thesis.

Why:

As I recently wrote, I think that the stock has gotten way ahead of itself, and has now shown extreme weakness, good fundamentals or no fundamentals.

This is a relatively short term trade, 1-4 weeks or so in length, playing the weakness in the stock, rotation into other discretionary names as the economy recovers, and an overall correction in shares of the company from their recent highs, which doubled from their lows in short order.

As investors rotate out of these recession plays and look at more discretionary stocks where people are likely to migrate once the fear of losing a job and a down economy subside, stocks like Netflix that were strong on the way up, despite a down market, will be the first to fall.

I believe that has already begun.

Finally, if you are interested in following my real time trade advice on this or any other stock, please be sure and subscribe to my Twitter feed.

Warning: If you are unfamiliar with shorting and how it works, please read my explanation and disclaimer about shorting before taking any action. Shorting stocks can be very dangerous if you don’t know what you are doing, and goes against the usual long-only bias of my website, but I will not hesitate to short stocks when the risk/reward favors us greatly.

]]> http://peakstocks.com/short-alert-netflix-nasdaq-nflx-short-12-position-3960/feed http://peakstocks.com/restaurant-stocks-more-downside-to-come http://peakstocks.com/restaurant-stocks-more-downside-to-come#comments Sun, 10 May 2009 22:35:20 +0000 Chris Fernandez http://peakstocks.com/restaurant-stocks-more-downside-to-come It’s been 3 weeks (April 19th) since I advocated selling and/or shorting a whole slew of restaurant stocks on the basis that the entire sector had climbed much too far too fast, and there were several names that were ripe for the picking.

Since that recommendation, my average pick is beating the market by 11% vs. shorting the Russell 2000, which is the benchmark I use because these stocks are all small caps.

I wanted to review the stocks that I talked about in that post as well as check in on their performance since that article vs. a few market indexes, as well as their earnings results since most of them have since reported earnings.

These include: Chiptole Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) (NYSE: CMG.B), Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD), BJ’s Restaurants (NASDAQ: BJRI), and Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA).

–> Get updates and real-time stock trades you WON’T find on PeakStocks.com by following me on Twitter.

Restaurant Stocks: A Lot of Hot Air

Out of these companies, 3 of the names were on my radar screen late last year, with a formal recommendation of Chipotle’s “B” shares at around $45 per share in my Top 5 Stocks for 2009 article.

I still feel strongly that this entire sector at the very best, is going to trade sideways for awhile, and at average to worse, is going to decline significantly for at least the next few weeks to months.

Let’s get right into each name.

Chipotle Mexican Grill:

Insiders selling shares like there’s no tomorrow

Chipotle Mexican Grill owns and operates 860 “fast-casual” Mexican restaurants and offers a focused menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla) and salads made from fresh, high-quality raw ingredients, prepared using classic cooking methods and served in a distinctive atmosphere.

Chipotle adheres to what they call Food With Integrity (FWI), whereby Chipotle seeks better food not only from using fresh ingredients, but ingredients that are sustainably grown and naturally raised with respect for animals, the land, and the farmers who produce the food.

Chipotle’s ultimate goal is to be able to serve only organically raised and grown food in all their restaurants.

Read more about Chipotle.

Why I liked the stock in the past:

• Stock price was at historically low levels in relative and absolute terms
• Same-store sales growth still positive
• Opening restaurants at a break-neck pace, even in recession
• No debt, strong cash flows, and strong working capital for funding new openings
• New locations become break even in about 3 years or less
• Best in breed company, restaurant and management team
• Continued operational excellence in trying times

Chipotle had some very compelling reasons to purchase shares, at least a small position, way back when I first wrote about the company in my Top 5 Stocks for 2009 article.

Many of those reasons still hold true to this day, including operational excellence, management, etc.

Why I recommended selling/shorting the stock at $80 for “A” shares, and $67 for “B” shares:

• Stock has doubled in a few month’s time from around $40 to $80 per share, while nothing has fundamentally changed within the company, in fact margins have declined and are expected to do so again as costs increase later this year for marketing
• Valuation is higher than any other restaurant company within this space (Trailing P/E: 33, Forward (2009) P/E: 30.6 vs. 15.9 for restaurant industry , P/S 1.91 vs. .4 for restaurant industry, etc.)
• Same-store sales increase was due mainly to increases in prices
• Stock price is significantly higher (45%) than average price target of $55 per share (way higher than any other restaurant I am covering in this article), meaning expectations are going to be extremely high, and even if analyst’s raise their price targets they are unlikely to raise their stock rating, don’t look for any upgrades even on an earnings beat.
• Insiders have almost sold more shares in the last couple of weeks than they had in the entire previous time that Chipotle has been a public company!
• Don’t be greedy.

Bottom Line: The insider selling is alarming, and I think we are in for a formal correction here in Chipotle’s stock rather soon.

Earnings were spectacular, with Chipotle smoking analyst’s estimates, but this was as a result of mostly higher prices on their menu as well as higher margins due to lower advertising expenses.

In fact, traffic levels DECLINED in the quarter!

Hmmm…declining traffic, but increased profits?

If you ask me, this was all smoke and mirrors.

Look for comps to come in considerably lower as we move through the rest of the year, and despite Chipotle’s operational excellence and best in breed status, we are simply in a bad place and time to be an investor in the stock.

It looks like insiders agree!

Performance Since Sell/Short Recommendation:

• S&P 500:+6.85%
• Nasdaq:+3.95%
• Russell 2000:+6.77%
• CMG-A: -2.39%
• CMG-B: -.80%
• Profit/Loss vs. shorting the Russell 2000: +9.16% (CMG-A), +7.57% (CMG-A)

Buffalo Wild Wings:

Typical sell on the news for high flying stock

Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc., engages in the ownership, operation, and franchising of restaurants in the United States that cater to mainly a sports bar audience serving mainly chicken wings with 14 signature sauces, while providing an atmosphere geared towards watching sports on large screen televisions while enjoying the company of others. The company provides quick casual and casual dining service, as well as serves bottled beers, wines, and liquor.

As of December 28, 2008, the company owned or franchised 560 Buffalo Wild Wings restaurants in 38 states, of which 197 were company-owned and 363 were franchised.

Read more about Buffalo Wild Wings.

Why I liked the stock:

• Stock price was at historically low levels in relative and absolute terms
• Same-store sales growth hugely positive even without the influence of higher menu prices
• Still opening new locations
• No debt, strong cash flows, and strong working capital for funding new openings
• Fantastic management team, strong execution, always staying on the cutting edge
• Continued operational excellence in trying times, in fact thriving because of it

BWLD has performed amazingly in this economic environment because of the perceived value proposition that the company provides.

You get a reasonably priced meal, a festive atmosphere where you can watch the Super Bowl, March Madness and other sporting events, and a good return on your investment of both time and money.

Why I recommended selling/shorting the stock at $37.80:

• Stock has more than doubled in a few month’s time from around $15-18 to $40 per share
• Valuation is higher than many other restaurant companies within this space (Trailing P/E: 28, Forward (2009) P/E: 22.52 vs. 15.9 for restaurant industry , P/S 1.57 vs. .4 for restaurant industry, etc.)
• Cash reserves have been dwindling
• Simple concept that has no real moat, consumers might trade up as soon as things improve, or the perception of improvement spurs more refined tastes
• Chicken wing prices are on the rise
• Has been written about in Investor’s Business Daily, means the good times are near finished
• Stock price is slightly higher than average price target of $35 per share, meaning expectations are going to be extremely high, and even if analysts raise their price targets they are unlikely to raise their stock rating, don’t look for many upgrades even on an earnings beat.
• Don’t be greedy.

I will admit that BWLD has rightfully deserved its rapid ascent up the charts.

Management has continued to excel, and the downtrodden economy has seemed to actually help the company’s results.

But buyer beware…expectations are now higher.

Bottom Line: BWLD reported results in-line with expectations, which had been primed to the max as a result of continued execution by the company as well as higher guidance.

The company did announce that costs would be higher in the second quarter of this year however due to higher higher store openings and higher stock based compensation expenses.

Guidance was in-line with what the company traditionally has espoused: 25 percent growth in revenue, and 20 percent to 25 percent growth in net earnings.

The only blemish on the quarter was a marked slowdown in the company’s same-store sales.

Again, BWLD is a great company, and has excellent management, but the valuation and stock price are not justifiable.

That being said, this stock is one of the stronger ones in the group that I am reviewing today, so make sure your short position if you have one, is tight, and look to get out on any strength to the upside.

Performance Since Sell/Short Recommendation:

• S&P 500:+6.85%
• Nasdaq:+3.95%
• Russell 2000:+6.77%
• BWLD: -6.08%
• Profit/Loss vs. shorting the Russell 2000: +12.85%

BJ’s Restaurants:

Purveyor of famous beer and Pizookie still too pricey

BJ’s Restaurants, Inc. owns and operates casual dining restaurants in the United States.

It operates restaurants under the BJ’s Restaurant & Brewery brand name, which includes a brewery within the restaurant; BJ’s Restaurant & Brewhouse, which receives the beer it sells from its breweries or an approved third party craft brewer of proprietary recipe beers; and BJ’s Pizza & Grill, which is a smaller format, full service restaurant.

BJ’s offers an innovative and broad menu featuring award-winning, signature deep-dish pizza complemented with generously portioned salads, appetizers, sandwiches, soups, pastas, entrees and desserts including their famous Pizookie dessert.

In addition, at most locations, BJ’s features award-winning handcrafted beer to go along with highly detailed, contemporary decor and usually includes a bank of TV’s, including several high definition flat panel televisions for patrons to enjoy while they eat.

BJ’s Restaurants owns and operates 84 casual dining restaurants.

Read more about BJ’s.

Why I liked the stock:

• Stock price was at historically low levels in relative and absolute terms
• Same-store sales growth down only moderately, in fact one of the better performing restaurant chains in hard hit California marketplace
• Still opening new locations, albeit at at much slower pace
• Very good balance sheet with minimal debt
• Insider buying at lowest levels late last year
• Great niche player in crowded sit down restaurant space

BJ’s is very similar to Buffalo Wild Wings, albeit a little more diversified in their menu offerings, and a little less expansive in the “sports bar” arena.

BJ’s is a refined balance between a pseudo-sports bar, with a nice casual sit-down dinner space with unique menu offerings as well as the aforementioned handcrafted beer.

In California, BJ’s largest market, the chain was holding up surprisingly well, even where it had overbuilt restaurant capacity in the hardest hit areas where job losses and the home construction collapse has been the worst.

I was looking to play BJ’s as a forward-thinking rebound play in the California housing market/job market…oops…looks like I was a little too late.

Why I recommended selling/shorting the stock at $15.45:

• Stock has more than doubled in a few month’s time from around $7-8 to $16 per share
• Valuation is high (Trailing P/E: 40, Forward (2009) P/E: 30.92 vs. 15.9 for restaurant industry , P/S 1.05 vs. .4 for restaurant industry, etc.)
• Cash reserves have been dwindling, debt has been increasing
• Simple concept that has no real moat, consumers might trade up as soon as things improve, or the perception of improvement spurs more refined tastes
• Not a best in breed player, but a very good restaurant chain. Does not deserve the higher multiples put forth on competitors like Chipotle, Panera, or Buffalo Wild Wings
• Stock price is 20% higher than average price target of $13.20 per share, meaning expectations are going to be extremely high, and even if analyst’s raise their price targets they are unlikely to raise their stock rating, don’t look for many upgrades even on an earnings beat.
• Don’t be greedy.

When BJ’s was trading around $8 per share, I was ready to get at least a 1/4 position, but waited to long obviously.

There were some compelling things going for BJ’s including insider buying, and the fact that same-store sales were decreasing but on a much lower level than other similar chains in this space, and it was looking like people just didn’t want to give up their BJ’s Pizookies, and for good reason.

But, as with all the stocks in this sector, greed has gotten the best of this stock as well. It is certainly not worth the premium being bestowed upon it now, and might fall harder than others if it slips at all because it is one notch below other best-in-breed players in the restaurant space.

Bottom Line: BJ’s reported solid earnings that were in-line to slightly higher than analyst’s had expected.

However, just as the smoke and mirrors earnings announcement by Chipotle, BJ’s also had a little trickery involved due to lower costs across the board as well as higher menu prices.

There is a limit to how low you can cut costs and raise prices, before the truth of your operations rears its ugly head.

Zacks had an interesting look at BJ’s Restaurants post earnings.

There are some worrisome trends within the company such as lower margins, low return on invested capital (ROIC), and return on equity (ROE), as well as management’s assertion that there will be fewer store openings this year as a result of continued consumer weakness.

Out of all the restaurants that I am featuring here, BJ’s is by far the weakest of the bunch and the one that can fall the furthest.

Performance Since Sell/Short Recommendation:

• S&P 500:+6.85%
• Nasdaq:+3.95%
• Russell 2000:+6.77%
• BJRI: -.2%
• Profit/Loss vs. shorting the Russell 2000: +6.97%

Panera Bread:

Company can’t keep hiding behind smell of bread, higher menu costs

Panera Bread Company owns and franchises 1,252 bakery-cafes under the Panera Bread and Saint Louis Bread Co. names as of December 30, 2008.

With its identity rooted in handcrafted, fresh-baked, artisan bread, Panera Bread is committed to providing great tasting, quality food that people can trust, highlighted by antibiotic free chicken, whole grain bread, select organic and all-natural ingredients and a menu with zero grams added trans fat.

Panera’s bakery-cafe selection offers flavorful, wholesome offerings, which include a wide variety of year-round favorites, complemented by new items introduced seasonally with the goal of creating new standards in everyday food choices.

Guests enjoy Panera’s warm and welcoming environment featuring comfortable gathering areas, relaxing decor, and free internet access provided through a managed WiFi network.

Read more about Panera Bread.

Why I liked the stock:

• None: I never liked Panera Bread as a stock. Great company, bad stock. I will say that Panera exhibits some of the characteristics that the other companies highlighted in this article have for advocating purchasing shares at lower levels, such as: no debt, high margins, continued execution in a tough environment, etc.

Unlike the other names on this list, there was never a compelling reason to own shares of Panera Bread in my eyes over the last year or so, and it has been on my “Stocks to short” list for quite some time, although I have yet to pull the trigger because the time hasn’t been right.

I won’t sit here and say Panera is a bad company in any way, but just a very bad stock.

Why I recommended selling/shorting the stock at $60:

• Stock has been overvalued for about a year now, and even with the recent run up in stocks, and the restaurant sector in particular, Panera has lagged those gains, indicating the stock is getting a little tired.
• Valuation is high (Trailing P/E: 27, Forward (2009) P/E: 22.81 vs. 15.9 for restaurant industry , P/S 1.40 vs. .4 for restaurant industry, etc.)
• Same-store sales increases have been as a result of increased prices, and a reshuffling of the menu to highlight higher margin, higher cost items.
• Company’s profitability has been boosted by several cost-cutting measures, including raw materials hedging for ingredients, this will not last
• Tons of competition in this space, and again once customers regain their financial footing, they’ll be trading in a nice lunch sandwich for a nice dinner somewhere else
• Stock price is 14% higher than average price target of $52.50 per share, meaning expectations are going to be extremely high, and even if analyst’s raise their price targets they are unlikely to raise their stock rating, don’t look for many upgrades even on an earnings beat.
• Has been reported in Investor’s Business Daily and Barron’s, means the good times are near finished
• 31% of the shares held short, people are betting Panera will fall
• Don’t be greedy.

Panera is a great company that is a favorite to many.

It’s just not a good stock, and hasn’t been for quite some time, but merely offered a safe haven in the restaurant industry while the rest of the industry was cratering.

The fact that Panera has lagged the market’s gains as well as those of its peers should be a troubling sign to you if you are long, as well as the 31% of the shares that are held short.

Bottom Line: The same story transpired at Panera that happened at the aforementioned restaurant chains. Namely, the company beat or met estimates, but on a little trickery via higher menu prices in the face of slowing traffic.

The trickery, along with Panera’s recent stock price run up, didn’t wow investors, as the stock has sold off dramatically since that earnings announcement took place.

I still think there is way more downside to come in this baby, as it was a high flyer and will be one of the first to fall if it ever revises estimates, or “misses” in any way, shape or form.

If you’ve enjoyed the run up, now’s the time to get out and enjoy your gains.

If you’re thinking about shorting, join the crowd.

Performance Since Sell/Short Recommendation:

• S&P 500:+6.85%
• Nasdaq:+3.95%
• Russell 2000:+6.77%
• PNRA: -11.8%
• Profit/Loss vs. shorting the Russell 2000: +18.57%

Still More Restaurant Correction Coming?

In summary, if you would have shorted any of these stocks, or all of them, you would be sitting on some nice gains right now, averaging over 100% annual returns!

I still think that we have more of a correction coming, and that this is just the first leg, especially when you review all the results of the companies in this article, and notice a uniquely disturbing trend among most of them: their results are being propped up by artificial means.

Same-store sales are declining in absolute terms if you exclude menu price increases.

Margins are shrinking for the most part.

Foot traffic is declining.

Costs that were easily shrunk in the first round of “cuts” now become harder to manipulate, and thus margins will contract further, and same-store sales and profits will come under fire.

I would not be long restaurant stocks right now, unless and until, there is a significant improvement in the economy that is NOT already reflected in the stock prices.

As of now, they all seem to be predicting the end of the recession, and more than that, that happy eating out days are here again for all Americans.

I believe that may be true for a few of these names, but definitely not for all of them, and not for the sector overall.

This was an overreaction to the upside just as we had an overreaction to the downside when things were looking grim.

The truth is somewhere in the middle, and we’re not there yet.

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