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BUY ALERT: SoundBite Communications (Nasdaq: SDBT) BUY 1/4 Position 5/1/08 Around $4.00

By Chris Fernandez | May 1st, 2008 at 2:13 am | (5) comments
3

SoundBite LogoWhat:

I am initiating a third (3) BUY recommendation of SoundBite Communications, Inc. (Nasdaq: SDBT), a leading provider of on-demand customer contact solutions, at or around $4.00 per share.

Sometimes the market presents us with a deal, and we need to be ready to pounce.

Why:

Man, where do I start!

  • Read my last company update and buy recommendation here.

It pretty much covers the reasons why I am recommending a purchase of SoundBite again at these levels.

or you can:

 

Why Has SoundBite Fallen?

The Million Dollar Question…

If I knew, or cared, I would not be picking stocks, but buying lottery tickets.

What I do know and understand is that we are being presented with an opportunity, and quite frankly, a gift.

The only possible scuttlebutt that MIGHT be influencing the price of SoundBite comes from a filing that they filed with the SEC last Friday, April 25th, a form S-8, which is a registration statement of shares that can be sold once their lock-up period expires.

Now, this registration statement could be causing some confusion in the market for a couple of reasons:

  1. It isn’t exactly clear that this statement is in fact for owners of the company’s shares to be able to sell them once the lock-up period expires, a standard procedure for any company that has come public and their lock-up period is nearing, and instead looks like it might be a registration filing for a follow-on offering that would dilute shareholders, a big no-no.
  2. The perception by the market, if they do understand what this registration statement means, that all of a sudden, we’ll have a huge deluge of shares flooding the market and putting downward pressure on SoundBite’s shares.

Of course, both of these reasons have built-in falsehoods that we can take advantage of.

First of all, this statement is just that, a statement of fact letting shareholders and the market know that everyone who was originally stated to have owned shares before the IPO, is again being stated as a matter of procedure.

All public companies do this, and are required to do so within a certain time frame of their lock-up period, or else employees won’t be able to sell shares.

Secondly, if you read the filing closely, the average strike price of the shares in question is about $3.00 per share in aggregate, with most of the shares being priced at an average price of $1.19 per share.

I don’t know about you, but with SoundBite’s shares sitting at about $4.00 as I sit and write this today, there aren’t going to be many happy campers or investors lining up to sell their shares for a measly $1-3 gain on a few thousand or even hundreds of thousands of shares.

Trust me when I say that there won’t be a mad dash to the exits for insiders and executives!

And if any of them are that anxious to sell, so be it, with the low float and share price, there are many institutional and individual investors, like us, that have been waiting for more liquidity in the stock anyway, and I don’t foresee the share price dipping lower because of this.

Bottom Line

Hold the Line…

Man this is getting to be old hat, but that’s exactly how we do things around here at PeakStocks.com

My absolute passion, is finding these kinds of stocks, making sure the story is straight, and then telling the world about them and investing right alongside my readers.

This instance is no different.

If you’ve been waiting to purchase shares of SoundBite, or have already bought but are ready to scale in some more and cost-average downward, there’s no better time than right now.

Say thanks to the market!

I say this of course knowing full well, and making sure that you do as well, that SoundBite might go lower before it recovers (although SoundBite’s Book Value is $3.00 per share, and it has cash on hand of $2.30 per share, so there is a downside limit here).

If you are scared, then buy a small amount, but I am upping to a full position in SoundBite as I believe this is the proverbial “fat pitch” that Warren Buffett always talks about:

When you see a fat pitch coming straight down the middle of the plate, you have to take a big swing and go for the home run.

After all the diligence and research that I’ve put into this company and the fundamentals, management team, business model, and prospects, there’s nothing left for me to say but it’s time to put our money where my mouth is.

That’s precisely what I intend to do.

*Variables You Should Know About SoundBite Communications (Nasdaq: SDBT)

Current Recommendation:
BUY
The Company: SoundBite Communications is a leading provider of on-demand automated voice messaging (AVM) solutions that are delivered through a Software as a Service (SaaS) model.
Why Buy Now:
  • Established Large Player/Customer Base
  • Fantastic, Highly Scalable Technology
  • Huge Growth In an Expanding and Rapidly Developing Market
  • Downside Protection In Recessionary Climate
  • New Company on the Precipice of Fundamental Breakout
  • Fantastic Stock Price as a Result of Pre-IPO Patent Letter, Market Overreaction
  • Largely Underfollowed Stock
  • High Margin Business
  • Multiple Revenue Streams
  • Large Insider Ownership (60+%)
Market Cap:
$61.38
Revenue (2007):
$40
Cash/Debt:
$36/ $0
Current Price: $4.00
Risk Rating (?): 7.5 (Moderate-High)
Position Size (?): 1/4 (2-1-08), 1/2 (2-13-08), 1/4 (5-1-08),
Buy Around Price (?): $6.00 (2-1-08), $5.50 (2-13-08), $4.00 (5-1-08)

*As of 4-30-08. Except share price, all values in millions.

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(5) comments to “BUY ALERT: SoundBite Communications (Nasdaq: SDBT) BUY 1/4 Position 5/1/08 Around $4.00”

  1. Phillip Hines Says:

    I’m curious as to what you think about uWink right now. It’s dropped $0.40 since I bought in. I has been hanging around $1.50 for a while but recently took a hit with about $0.10 to $0.15. Why does the stock continue to drop?

  2. Jonathan Says:

    Another great post Chris! Looking forward to the upcoming earnings

  3. Chris Fernandez Says:

    Philip,

    I think uWink is exactly the same as when I first recommended it.

    If the price is lower, then so much the better for those with long term horizons like us.

    I would recommend purchasing more shares here at a lower level to balance out your portfolio, and to cost-average into the position better.

    If it falls much lower, say below $1.25 or so, I will also be officially recommending another purchase of shares as well.

    What’s happened? Your guess is as good as mine.

    Remember that all it takes is for one person to dump a whole bunch of shares for the stock price to fall because the volume and float are so low.

    Be patient, and don’t check the daily prices changes…maybe weekly, but not daily, penny stocks are notorious for moving around a ton from day to day.

    Chris

  4. Joseph Says:

    Chris,

    Just wanted to let you know that I really appreciate all the research that you do. I bought some shares the other day and I am thinking that this stock will “pop” but it could take some time, right now I am just waiting on the quartely results!

    GEOY looks interesting too..but I am going to give it some more thought.

    Thanks,
    Joe

  5. Chris Fernandez Says:

    Joe,

    Thanks, I appreciate it.

    Chris

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