Results

I got an interesting and thought-provoking comment from a reader the other day.

He stated:

“Chris,

I’ve enjoyed your commentary and analysis so far, but this comment is a bit over the top especially after SBDT and GEOY earnings results the last couple of days…

“Almost every company that I cover usually always meets, and more than not, BEATS estimates, and ups their guidance, and therefore, it is more prudent to buy the shares before that happens.”

As the great Paul Tudor Jones said, “Don’t be a hero. Don’t have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don’t ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead. Play great defense, not great offense.”

Just food for thought.

Mexx” Read the rest of this entry »

SoundBite Communications (Nasdaq: SDBT), a leading provider of on-demand customer contact solutions, recently reported their Q1/2008 earnings, and the subsequent disappointment and stock collapse led to much head scratching.

I followed up with SoundBite’s management team to clarify some things that were said on the conference call, in addition to talking more about the business, the future, and to help understand whether or not we should hang on to our shares of SoundBite for another quarter or cut bait now.

What follows are the questions that I asked SoundBite’s management (In Bold), and their responses to those questions (paraphrased).

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AuthenTec (Nasdaq: AUTH), the world’s leading provider of fingerprint sensors and solutions, found itself on the other side of a recently filed patent infringement case against Atrua Technologies, a privately held company that also creates fingerprint sensors and solutions.

On May 18th, 2008, Atrua filed a countersuit against AuthenTec for infringement of Atrua’s patented technology and illegal interference with Atrua’s business.

The countersuit comes only a few months after AuthenTec filed their original patent infringement lawsuit against Atrua alleging that THEY (Atrua) infringe on some of AuthenTec’s patents…

Now this is starting to get ugly, and adds more distraction and potential costs just when AuthenTec won a summary judgment only a week ago against Atmel Corp. (Nasdaq: ATML) in a similar patent protection case.

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AuthenTec (Nasdaq: AUTH), the world’s leading provider of fingerprint sensors and solutions, announced that on May 5th, 2008 the U.S. District Court of Northern California issued an order in favor of AuthenTec, ruling that its products do not infringe either of the two patents asserted in a lawsuit by Atmel Corporation (Nasdaq: ATML).

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GeoEye, Inc. (Nasdaq: GEOY) a provider of space-based and aerial imagery, and geospatial information, reported its fiscal 1st quarter 2008 earnings on Friday May 9th.

Taking Advantage of a Golden Opportunity

Let me help you understand the GeoEye story

Before the analyst conference call shares of GeoEye dipped to $16.00 a share before recovering to end the day at about $19.00 as trader’s nerves were soothed by the sweet sounds of what GeoEye’s management team had to say about the business, and felt, as do I, that right now may be the best chance to nab shares of GeoEye for the run-up that is to come.

I am hopeful that with my detailed and thorough look at GeoEye and their latest earnings release, you will begin to understand the GeoEye story more thoroughly, and see what an amazing, yet risky, investment GeoEye is at today’s levels.

When the numbers are first looked at, they don’t look good, but you need to understand what is behind those numbers. This is not a repeat of the SoundBite debacle we faced earlier in the week, but rather a nervous market misunderstanding a company that is only followed by one Wall Street analyst and gets heavy swings in momentum based on perception alone.

Things got a little rough on the GeoEye conference call, NOT because of what management did or said, but because one of the callers actually chastised management for the share price being so low, but, as with the rest of the Q/A session and prepared statements, I heard a confident, unified, and in-control management team that is doing a great job of guiding GeoEye to the next level with the launch of the next generation GeoEye-1 satellite now confirmed and on track.

What follows is a brief summary of GeoEye’s earnings announcement and conference call, along with my explanation of the numbers and what you need to know about them to fully understand GeoEye.

Look for a full and detailed analysis on GeoEye in my upcoming research report. Read the rest of this entry »

It looks like I’ll be eating my first dose of humble pie since I started PeakStocks.com about 7 months ago. In a business where if you get slightly over 50% of your picks right, you attain rock star status, it looks like we’ll be adding SoundBite to the “losing” side of the scorecard, at least for now.

SoundBite Communications (Nasdaq: SDBT), a leading provider of on-demand customer contact solutions, reported its fiscal 1st quarter 2008 earnings on Wednesday May 7th after the market closed, and to say they were bad would probably not serve the word “bad” properly.

Not only did SoundBite miss their own guidance and estimates for the first quarter, but they also LOWERED guidance for Q2/2008, AND full-year 2008, only 3 months after they had raised that same guidance.

So is it time to sell SoundBite and cut our losses? Maybe…

What follows is a brief summary of SoundBite’s earnings announcement and conference call, with my solemn thoughts at the end.

Look for a full report on their latest quarter and analyst conference call highlights in a few weeks after they release their latest 10-Q filing and I have a chance to parse the data fully. Read the rest of this entry »

I was going to wait before recommending my next addition to the portfolio until I had finished my full research report, but seeing where things stand today, the valuation combined with the business prospects make this one too juicy to pass up at today’s price.

The company is GeoEye, Inc. (Nasdaq: GEOY), a small/medium sized business that provides space-based, and aerial imagery and geospatial information through high-resolution and low-resolution imagery, imagery-derived products, and image processing services to customers worldwide.

GeoEye is the leader in a niche field with high barriers to entry, has nice growth prospects ahead of it and several upcoming catalysts that I believe put us in a highly advantageous position.

Normally I would wait until I have finished my full research report before sending out a formal recommendation of a company that I have been following and intended to recommend, but the current share price and valuation and the company’s strong niche and leadership within their field, lead me to make this recommendation now.

What follows is a brief description of the company, market, risks, and catalysts.

Look for my full research report detailing every aspect of the company in the coming weeks. Read the rest of this entry »

What:

I am initiating a third (3) BUY recommendation of SoundBite Communications, Inc. (Nasdaq: SDBT), a leading provider of on-demand customer contact solutions, at or around $4.00 per share.

Sometimes the market presents us with a deal, and we need to be ready to pounce.

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