There is a definite slowdown in AAR Corp’s. (NYSE: AIR) business as a result of the overall market forces and economic malaise, but all things being equal, the company still reported decent numbers after the market closed last night.

As I wrote about previously, I wanted to see AAR’s results come in somewhat in-line, which they did, but see significant improvement in their cash flow generation and paying down some of their debt load, which did occur.

So what does this mean for our investment? Is AAR still a good place to park our money even in the face of the continued economic storm?

In this post I’ll be breaking down AAR’s full earnings release, as well as their analyst conference call, and round out my post with what you should do with AAR’s stock.

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I wanted to update you on 2 of the companies in the PeakStocks.com portfolio that have had developments in the last few days that you should be aware of.

This includes:

• GeoEye Inc. (NASDAQ: GEOY), which announced on Wednesday December 10th after the market closed that they have secured a very important Service Level Agreement (SLA) with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and
• AAR, Corp. (NYSE: AIR), which is set to release their Q2/2009 earnings early next week.

Let’s get right to it.

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WOO-DOGGY!

Would you like some volatility to go along with your morning coffee?

Since I last came out with my top 5 stocks for November,  the market’s gyrations have certainly put everyone on edge, and make buying stocks at this juncture definitely not for the faint of heart, or those with very short term investing time frames.

I recently wrote that now was a fantastic time to buy shares of companies you have been watching and where the fundamentals present an excellent risk/reward scenario.

My watch list is no different, and this month I have a broad range of stocks that I am looking at for possible inclusion into the PeakStocks.com portfolio.

These stocks enter and exit my Top 5 as constant fluctuations in both price, market conditions, and business fundamentals constantly alter the investment thesis.

Please note that my Top 5 Stocks for December aren’t yet formal recommendations.

I have more due diligence that I have to perform on them, but they are compelling enough with the research that I have done to be at the absolute top of my list, at least as of this writing.

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It’s been another incredible month for stocks, and especially for those on my watch list.

With rare exception, stocks of all shapes and sizes are getting pummeled and are presenting us with great buying opportunities for those with a long term investment horizon.

I recently wrote that now was a fantastic time to buy shares of companies you have been watching and where the fundamentals present an excellent risk/reward scenario.

My watch list is no different, and this month I have a broad range of stocks that I am looking at for possible inclusion into the PeakStocks.com portfolio.

These stocks enter and exit my Top 5 as constant fluctuations in both price, market conditions, and business fundamentals constantly alter the investment thesis.

Today I wanted to give you a heads up on some of the stocks that I was watching for possible inclusion into my portfolio, specifically ones that are high on my list, and most likely to be added as formal recommendations in the weeks to come as they reach desirable price points, and present wonderful opportunities for long term investors.

Please note that my Top 5 Stocks for November aren’t yet formal recommendations.

I have more due diligence that I have to perform on them, but they are compelling enough with the research that I have done to be at the absolute top of my list, at least as of this writing.

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Even though I have already allocated a full position, and then some, to AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR), the recent sell-off in the market, and with AAR in particular, is WAY overdone.

Sometimes you get a gift, and you would be crazy to not take it.

Various valuation metrics as well as my discounted cash flow analysis (DCF) show that AAR’s shares should be about 50-100% higher without even accounting for a recovery in the marketplace!

Add this to recent insider buying, and the stock trading below tangible book value, and at a severe discount to its peers, and you get a classic low risk, high reward proposition that is hard to pass up.

It might take weeks, or it might take months, but I believe AAR at these levels represents a true bargain on a valuable business with a proven management team and execution strategy.

What follows are my reasons for picking up another 1/4 position today.

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What:

AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR): AAR Corp. is a diversified company that provides products and services to the aviation, aerospace, and defense industries worldwide. It operates in four segments: Aviation Supply Chain; Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO); Structures and Systems; and Aircraft Sales and Leasing.

AAR has gotten slammed to the mat along with most other stocks in the Aerospace and Defense sector over the last year or so.

I am issuing a BUY recommendation on shares of  AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR) immediately.

I am initiating a BUY recommendation of AAR at or around $11.75 per share.

I’ll be coming out with a post later this evening explaining why.

New to the AAR story?

• Read my last company update here.

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I was watching that DirecTV (NASDAQ: DTV) commercial the other day with the little girl from the 1982 movie Poltergeist, and was reminded of a part in the movie when she was trapped inside the nether world of ghosts that were terrorizing her family’s home, and would cry out: “mommy…..” in a haunting and echoing tone.

It was pretty scary actually.

Not unlike the turmoil in the markets in the last year, especially in the last month or so, that has driven a lot of traders and regular folks watching their life savings severely decline in value, call out at night for their mommies…

I guess in retrospect, I picked the perfect time to start a stock website devoted to the most volatile and unpredictable stocks available on Earth right?

I mean, when things go bad, small-cap and micro-cap stocks go down far more than other performers, but the same holds true on the up side.

This begs the question: What should one do with their money now?

I’ll tell you what you should do with your money!

Grab every cent you can find, sell every piece of junk you have in your house, and find any cash that you’ve been saving for a rainy day, and put it to work in the market RIGHT NOW!

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The tumultuous market has continued to beat down stocks of all shapes and sizes.

This is great news for those of us waiting on the sidelines to put new capital to work.

This month I have a broad range of stocks that I am looking at for possible inclusion into the PeakStocks.com portfolio.

These stocks enter and exit my Top 5 as constant fluctuations in both price, market conditions, and business fundamentals constantly alter the investment thesis.

Today I wanted to give you a heads up on some of the stocks that I was watching for possible inclusion into my portfolio, specifically ones that are high on my list, and most likely to be added as formal recommendations in the weeks to come as they reach desirable price points, and present wonderful opportunities for long term investors.

Please note that my Top 5 Stocks for October aren’t yet formal recommendations.

I have more due diligence that I have to perform on them, but they are compelling enough with the research that I have done to be at the absolute top of my list, at least as of this writing.

Read the rest of this entry »

On a day that the markets were absolutely crushed, AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR) survived the maelstrom to finish the day up modestly (+.57 to $16.24) as a result of their continued stellar results even in the face of severe weakness and cutbacks in the airline industry.

As I predicted when reviewing AAR’s quarter and what to expect, the results were absolutely wonderful across the board especially when taking into account all the headwinds that AAR is facing in their various business segments.

Will this continue? Can AAR keep weathering these shifts in the market to keep their dominant position atop the industry?

In this post I’ll be breaking down AAR’s full earnings release, as well as their analyst conference call, and round out my post with what you should do with AAR’s stock.

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It’s about that time again when earnings season is upon us with some companies reporting their earnings mid-stream.

PeakStocks.com portfolio recommendation AAR Corp. (NYSE: AIR), which provides products and services to the aviation, aerospace, and defense industries worldwide, will be reporting earnings for their Q1/2009 fiscal year Tuesday September 16, 2008 after the market closes.

What will be interesting to see is how the recent slowdown and cutbacks by the airline industry, and specifically certain customers that used AAR for their maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), affected AAR’s business prospects and earnings outlook.

Analysts still feel very strongly about this stock, with not one analyst downgrading it ever since I’ve been following the company for over a year now, and even today, William Blair started AAR at an outperform.

In this post I’ll go over the important aspects that we need to be aware of before AAR announces earnings and then break them down into the following parameters:

• What went right in the quarter: What were some of the positive developments that occurred within the company in the last 3 months.
• What went wrong in the quarter: What were some of the negative developments that occurred within the company in the last 3 months.
• What I want to see: All things considered, what I realistically want to see from the company as it relates to their business.
• What we need to see: At the minimum, what we need to see for our investing thesis to still hold and an investment in this company to be prudent.
• What we’ll probably see: After weighing what’s been going on for the last 3 months, what we can realistically expect when they do announce their earnings.
• Bottom Line: What it all means, and what you should do.

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