Today is a day to give thanks.

I know it’s a little early for Thanksgiving, but I’m talking about being thankful to Uncle Sam and the U.S. government for the bountiful opportunity they have given us to make huge loads of money in a relatively short amount of time.

I’m talking about shorting U.S. debt via 2 specific, but very risky vehicles:

• Ultrashort Lehman 20+Year Treasury Proshares (NYSE: TBT)
• Direxion Daily 30 Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: TMV)

–> Get updates and real-time stock trades you WON’T find on PeakStocks.com by following me on Twitter.

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What:

Today I sold my full position in GeoEye, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEOY), a provider of space-based and aerial imagery and geospatial information, at $20.75 per share.

The total amount in my portfolio was was for a 3/4 position out of a full position, accounting for about 25% of my portfolio.

Those that follow me on Twitter received this update today as I made the transaction.

By the time some of you read this post, I will have already exited the position because my price target that I outlined was breached, so I advise you to subscribe to my Twitter feed that can be sent to your phone via text message or email for any actionable alerts that I will first post there before writing about in these pages.

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What:

Today I covered my short position in Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) at $39.90 per share.

The total amount shorted was for a 1/2 position out of a full position, accounting for about 15% of my portfolio.

Those that follow me on Twitter received this update today as I made the transaction.

By the time some of you read this post, I will have already exited the position because my stop limit order was triggered, so I advise you to subscribe to my Twitter feed that can be sent to your phone via text message or email for any actionable alerts that I will first post there before writing about in these pages.

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AuthenTec (NASDAQ: AUTH), the world’s leading provider of fingerprint sensors and solutions to the PC, Wireless and Access Control markets, released their Q1/09 earnings and held their analyst conference call May 12th after the market closed.

As I wrote on my Twitter feed, 3 of the companies in the portfolio reported last week, and all things considered, AuthenTec was not the highest on my priority list by any means.

Sure, I guess that speaks to the status of the company, and I’m seriously considering shuttering the entire position as I’ll discuss below, but for now, it looks like with AuthenTec’s huge cash position (the stock currently trades at less than the $2.31 per share in cash on hand), as well as their intellectual property (IP) and client roster, a larger company can swoop in and buy AuthenTec for pennies on the dollar, and we would get an easy double from here with no sweat.

Results this time around came in ahead of expectations and it appears that things are bottoming out, and that AuthenTec’s cost cutting measures are paying off.

The questions is, will this be enough to see the company through to the other side, or will it at least be enough for them to take advantage of their upcoming products or be acquired by another semiconductor company?

What follows is a summary of AuthenTec’s earnings announcement, conference call highlights, and my take on the company’s latest quarter and results, and what you should do if you own the stock.

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Our favorite purveyor of adult fantasy, Rick’s Cabaret International (NASDAQ: RICK) reported results May 12th, and there appears to be good news on the horizon.

I am recommending immediate purchase of shares in Rick’s stock at or around $6-7 per share, and in fact I added to my position at $6.90 on May 13th.

Readers of my Twitter feed were able to take advantage of my real-time buy alert as well as a weak stock market to grab shares of Rick’s at a fantastic price, as the company’s results while not stellar, show marked improvement and portend greater things ahead.

As I wrote in my recent buy recommendation for Rick’s shares, I feel that the company has reached an inflection point

While the economy still shows signs of weakness, it appears that as a result of Rick’s best-in-breed status, rebranding efforts at underperforming clubs, as well as several marketing campaigns, the company is expanding market share and wisely spending now to reap the benefits later.

In this post I’ll be breaking down Rick’s full earnings release, as well as their analyst conference call, and round out my post with what you should do with Rick’s stock whether you do or don’t own it yet.

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GeoEye, Inc. (NASDAQ: GEOY), a provider of space-based and aerial imagery and geospatial information, hit us with some good news, and a whole host of bad news today.

With GeoEye’s only U.S. competitor DigitalGlobe (NYSE: DGI) going public later this week, lots of attention is being bestowed upon both companies as a true apples-to-apples comparison can now be made as it relates to their satellite fleets, valuations and prospects going forward.

The problem?

As those that follow me on Twitter know, today GeoEye hosted its fiscal 1st quarter earnings conference call, and there was a little nugget of information about halfway into the call that caught Wall Street and me by unexpected surprise: The company’s newest satellite, GeoEye-1 is experiencing some technical problems that GeoEye is currently evaluating and determining how it will affect the company’s prospects going forward.

As you can see by the stock price, investors sure didn’t wait around for a nice and tidy explanation, and now with more focus on this sector as a result of Jim Cramer highlighting DigitalGlobe on Mad Money, as well as increased attention by various news outlets, now is certainly not the time for GeoEye to be experiencing some technical difficulties.

What follows is a summary of GeoEye’s earnings announcement and conference call, and what you need to know if you own, or are thinking of owning the stock.

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What:

Today I initiated a short position on Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) at $39.60 per share.

The total amount shorted was for a 1/2 position out of a full position, accounting for about 15% of my portfolio.

Those that follow me on Twitter received this update today as I made the transaction.

By the time some of you read this post, I may have already exited the position if my stop limit order was triggered, so I advise you to subscribe to my Twitter feed that can be sent to your phone via text message or email for any actionable alerts that I will first post there before writing about in these pages.

I am instituting a stop limit order to curtail losses if I am wrong, at about a 7-10% loss, or around $42.50 - $43.50 and I advise you do the same.

If I am wrong and the stock pokes through its 50 day moving average on the upside (which will present resistance on the way up) then you need to take your losses and get out.

If however the stock nudges through that level on weak volume on an up day in the market, you might want to look at keeping or adding to your short position, with an even tighter stop.

There may very well be a slight bounce in the stock, but what we don’t want to see is a huge move to the upside breaking through resistance on high volume, which would render our short term trade null, at least temporarily, regardless of the longer term thesis.

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It’s been 3 weeks (April 19th) since I advocated selling and/or shorting a whole slew of restaurant stocks on the basis that the entire sector had climbed much too far too fast, and there were several names that were ripe for the picking.

Since that recommendation, my average pick is beating the market by 11% vs. shorting the Russell 2000, which is the benchmark I use because these stocks are all small caps.

I wanted to review the stocks that I talked about in that post as well as check in on their performance since that article vs. a few market indexes, as well as their earnings results since most of them have since reported earnings.

These include: Chiptole Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) (NYSE: CMG.B), Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD), BJ’s Restaurants (NASDAQ: BJRI), and Panera Bread Company (NASDAQ: PNRA).

–> Get updates and real-time stock trades you WON’T find on PeakStocks.com by following me on Twitter.

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Short and sweet tonight, there’s some info that can’t wait for a nice and pretty post:

Please note: I highly advise you to subscribe to my Twitter feed to get the most up to date and real-time announcements from me on when to buy, sell, etc.

While my posts are more comprehensive and detailed, they will always lag my actionable advice.

–> Get updates you WON’T find on PeakStocks.com by following me on Twitter. Click Here.

Rick’s Cabaret: Time To Buy

Rick’s Cabaret International (NASDAQ: RICK): Rick’s stock has been on an absolute tear in the last 1-2 months, more than tripling in price from a low of $2.50, to $7.50 before today’s pull back.

I have been watching the trends at Rick’s as well as the chart and volume patterns, and everything looks bullish aside from today’s down move along with the rest of the market.

If you’ve been waiting to buy Rick’s on a pullback, now’s the time to do it.

Look to enter a position right here, and especially on any weakness below $6.00 per share.

Protect yourself on the downside and liquidate if Rick’s falls below $4.50, but I don’t think that will happen.

With improving fundamentals, restructured debt, and the recently announced highest monthly sales in the company’s history with improving trends at the weakest clubs, now’s the time to buy into Rick’s, not later.

• Strategy: Buy 1/4 - 1/2 position now, more if stock dips below $6.00. Sell entire position if stock breaks $4.50.

Gain more knowledge:

• Rick’s renegotiates debt obligations
• Rick’s April sales highest ever, turnaround in place
• Read my update on the company’s last earnings release and conference call here.

–> Get updates you WON’T find on PeakStocks.com by following me on Twitter. Click Here.

Netflix: Time To Short

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX): I won’t go into laborious detail about why you should consider shorting Netflix shares, yes even in the face of an apparent “bull market”, but suffice it to say, I think that the stock has gotten way ahead of itself, and has now shown extreme weakness, good fundamentals or no fundamentals.

Today was a critical level as the stock dropped below its 50-day moving average on almost 2x the volume.

Other indicators are also turning bearish for the stock, at least short term, and that is all we care about.

I haven’t officially tried to short yet, as 30% of the float is short, so I am unaware if it is hard to borrow the shares or not.

If it is, consider buying May puts for a short term move, perhaps June, but remember that this is a short term (1-3 weeks) play, and nothing more, as I believe in the management and prospects of Netflix overall, just not in such a heady way as we’ve seen lately.

As investors rotate out of these recession plays and look at more discretionary stocks where people are likely to migrate once the fear of losing a job and a down economy subside, stocks like Netflix that were strong on the way up, despite a down market, will be the first to fall.

I believe that has already begun.

Strategy: Short 1/4 - 1/2 position now, more if stock rises over the next few days. Sell entire position if stock breaks $43.50 or so.

Warning: if you are unfamiliar with shorting and how it works, please read my explanation and disclaimer about shorting  before taking any action.

Gain more knowledge:

• IBD article on moving averages, specifically for Netflix

–> Get updates you WON’T find on PeakStocks.com by following me on Twitter. Click Here.

GeoEye: Getting caught up on earnings

GeoEye (NASDAQ: GEOY): A couple of quick notes on GeoEye.

• Earnings: The company announced that they would be releasing their Q1/09 earnings after the market closed next Monday, and then hosting an analyst conference call Tuesday May 12th at 11:00 AM.
• Expanded Facilities: GeoEye also announced today that it has completed an expansion, nearly doubling the production space, of its St. Louis, Missouri advanced production facility.

Strategy: GeoEye remains a long term buy and hold in the PeakStocks.com portfolio.

Gain more knowledge:

• Read my latest earnings post about GeoEye’s continued execution and rising stock price here.
• OR: read my latest buy recommendation here.
  
• OR: listen to my EXCLUSIVE interview with GeoEye’s management team here.

–> Get updates you WON’T find on PeakStocks.com by following me on Twitter. Click Here.

We’ve had quite a recovery in the market from the lows reached in March, and many semiconductor stocks have followed suit.

While AuthenTec Inc. (NASDAQ: AUTH), a maker of fingerprint sensors, is no different, even with a recovery in its stock price from the absolute abyss, AuthenTec is still trading at a close-out price.

Quite literally, AuthenTec is trading at a significant discount to its cash on hand, as well as its liquidation value taking into account all variables.

I have a special treat today as I’ll be previewing AuthenTec’s earnings and we will be joined by guest columnist Jae Jun of Old School Value with a short write-up at the end of this post breaking down AuthenTec’s current valuation and liquidation value.

In essence, we are getting the company for free at today’s prices assuming nothing changes and conditions don’t improve at all!

So what does this mean for our investment in AuthenTec as they look to report earnings on Tuesday, May 12th after the market closes?

In this post I’ll go over the important aspects that we need to be aware of before AuthenTec announces earnings and then break them down into the following parameters:

• What went right in the quarter: What were some of the positive developments that occurred within the company in the last 3 months.
• What went wrong in the quarter: What were some of the negative developments that occurred within the company in the last 3 months.
• What I want to see: All things considered, what I realistically want to see from the company as it relates to their business.
• Jae’s analysis of AuthenTec’s deep net-net value territory
• Bottom Line: What it all means, and what you should do.

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